15P-ids: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of 15P-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2019 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen здесь.
For 2019 we found for the Earth an encounter with 1919 trail of the comet 15P/Finlay. This trail part is quite perturbed, so far the computed time of maximum (9:02 UT on July 30) significantly differs from more typical for this comet orbit end of September - beginning of October period. Particles ejection velocity (59.6 m/s) is quite high which diminishes the possibility of visible outburst, however good prospects of activity in radiorange remain.
Considering this as well as the fact that the showers of this comet has not been seen before, it is very difficult to estimate intensity of possible activity, however even if it takes place it should not be very strong, perhaps with ZHR up to 20. Still it is a good chance to record a new meteor shower, especially as it is maximum time nearly coincides with a new Moon. Theoretical radiant is RA=287.3°, Dec=-23.6°, V=20 km/s.
Fig. 2. The Earth as seen from coming 15-ids meteors (RA=287.3°, Dec=-23.6°) during the expected maximum time of outburst from 1919 trail at 9:02 UT 30 July.
As shown on the Fig. 2, this outburst should be easily visible from the Pacific ocean including many of its islands. Acceptable radiant altitude will be also in the eastern part of Australia and an ajacent to the Pacific part of the Antarctics. From western coasts from Northern and Southern Americas the radiant will be visible at quite low altitudes, not higher than appr. 25 degrees.
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 15P Finlay]
5. Hewgill G. Xearth 1.1.0 (Software program), 2003.