103p-ids 1901-2100
Computation characteristics We'd like to present the results of simulation of the meteor stream produced by the comet 103P Hartley 2 aimed to the prediction of shower activity in the years 1901-2100. The simulation was made for the trails of latest 7 revolutions, i.e, from the 1949 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model by E. Lyytinen and T. van Flandern given in their paper [3] was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to convert the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the 103P-ids. The computation considered only gravitational forces The following parts of trails were computed: the first 15 rev. trails for ejection velocities [-50;100] m/s. 103p-id predictions are given as short conclusions for the years for which possible activity enhancements are found. Orbit of the comet 103P in 1901-2100 The Author used initial orbital elements of 103P, starting from the perihelion of 1949 and up to 2100 one, presented by Kazuo Kinoshita [2]. Orbital elements of 103P in the period 1901-2100, as well as values of minimal distances to the Earth orbit for these elements and relative solar longitudes are given in Tables A2 (for minimal distanses passed after the perihelion) and A3 (for minimal distanses passed before the perihelion). Table А2 time of perih. q e AOP LAN i МD. SL. Time of MD passage - AU - ° ° ° AU ° - 1949 09 26.0017 1.62162 0.59205 156.2764 236.8380 16.7686 0.63681 215.0764 1949.10.10 19:18 1957 09 08.8206 1.62979 0.59107 156.5097 236.6990 16.7852 0.64477 215.1665 1957.09.18 21:05 1965 08 15.9993 1.61938 0.59243 156.5583 236.6711 16.8228 0.63450 215.1896 1965.08.21 08:53 1973 05 02.8594 0.90465 0.72956 177.0254 228.5297 8.0903 -0.06680 252.6462 1973.05.21 09:57 1979 06 17.6634 0.90423 0.72966 177.1106 228.4634 8.0956 -0.06721 252.7488 1979.07.06 09:23 1985 06 04.8694 0.95162 0.71984 174.8110 226.8539 9.2527 -0.03406 233.1977 1985.06.13 06:34 1991 09 11.6517 0.95330 0.71949 174.8958 226.7844 9.2517 -0.03272 232.7042 1991.09.19 16:49 Table А3 1973 05 02.8594 0.90465 0.72956 177.0254 228.5297 8.0903 -0.08463 198.7874 1973.04.14 04:18 1979 06 17.6634 0.90423 0.72966 177.1106 228.4634 8.0956 -0.08476 198.5969 1979.05.29 23:13 1997 12 22.0173 1.03172 0.70038 180.7227 219.9539 13.6188 0.03956 219.6879 1997.12.21 03:25 2004 05 17.9482 1.03628 0.69951 180.8109 219.8980 13.6020 0.04420 219.5516 2004.05.11 10:30 2010 10 28.2715 1.05869 0.69513 181.2027 219.7600 13.6184 0.06726 219.4533 2010.10.21 05:29 2017 04 20.5195 1.06600 0.69345 181.3040 219.7244 13.5940 0.07457 219.4399 2017.04.14 05:51 2023 10 12.5584 1.06411 0.69383 181.3055 219.7499 13.6108 0.07277 219.4695 2023.10.07 01:53 2030 04 05.5682 1.06807 0.69303 181.3028 219.7640 13.5915 0.07677 219.4750 2030.04.01 00:24 2036 09 27.1588 1.06184 0.69416 181.3234 219.7602 13.6194 0.07055 219.4879 2036.09.23 11:53 2043 03 12.4029 1.05254 0.69600 181.3949 219.7666 13.6415 0.06128 219.5297 2043.03.09 14:47 2049 08 19.2570 1.04839 0.69672 181.4603 219.7180 13.6605 0.05712 219.5060 2049.08.17 06:53 2056 01 04.6523 0.96209 0.71480 184.0012 218.2766 13.1912 -0.02951 217.5950 2056.01.01 06:51 2062 03 18.2033 0.96035 0.71513 184.0876 218.2177 13.2012 -0.03120 217.4635 2062.03.14 16:58 2068 03 25.7405 0.94425 0.72233 188.7715 209.9044 8.8093 -0.04087 201.0436 2068.03.12 16:35 2074 07 06.8500 0.94358 0.72255 188.8882 209.8361 8.8174 -0.04121 200.7958 2074.06.24 00:28 2080 06 21.8118 0.92288 0.72481 186.5834 207.9816 12.8895 -0.06390 203.8358 2080.06.16 07:33 2086 08 16.7451 0.92472 0.72450 186.6669 207.9214 12.8824 -0.06197 203.9271 2086.08.13 09:24 2093 01 12.4387 1.05397 0.69662 189.9542 206.2271 14.2716 0.06037 208.4654 2093.01.06 21:32 2099 07 10.4252 1.05919 0.69573 190.0231 206.1708 14.2489 0.06557 208.5620 2099.06.30 09:37Orbital elements are given for the Epoch J2000. The following of them are denoted with symbols: q - perihelion distance; e - eccentricity; AOP - argument of perihelion; LAN - longitude of ascending node; i - inclination. MD - minimal distance to the Earth's orbit, SL - solar longitude of MD-point. Positive value of minimal distance means that point of such minimum lies outside the Earth orbit, and negative value means that this point is inside the Earth orbit. |