185p-ids 1901-2100

Computation characteristics
We'd like to present the results of simulation of the meteor stream produced by the comet 185P Petriew aimed to the prediction of shower activity in the years 1901-2100. The simulation was made for the trails of latest 13 revolutions, i.e, from the 1913 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model by E. Lyytinen and T. van Flandern given in their paper [3] was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to convert the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the 103P-ids. The computation considered only gravitational forces.
185p-id predictions are given as short conclusions for the years for which possible activity enhancements are found.

Orbit of the comet 185P in 1901-2100
The Author used initial orbital elements of 185P, starting from the perihelion of 1913 and up to 2100 one, presented by Kazuo Kinoshita [2]. Orbital elements of 185P in the period 1901-2100, as well as values of minimal distances to the Earth orbit for these elements and relative solar longitudes are given in Tables A2 (for minimal distanses passed after the perihelion) and A3 (for minimal distanses passed before the perihelion).
                                                                   Table А2
time of perih.	     q       e      AOP      LAN      i       МD.      SL.     Time of MD passage
       -             AU       -      °        °       °       AU      °              -

19130929.5000     1.24485 0.63238 165.2500 222.9180 12.4341  0.25574 211.8389   13.09.1913 6:20
19191226.1738     1.24593 0.63212 165.3571 222.8484 12.4374  0.25674 211.8324   09.12.1919 21:30
19260512.0753     1.37203 0.60486 170.0826 218.1915 14.1668  0.37969 210.2201   04.05.1926 6:18
19321104.6195     1.37778 0.60391 170.1764 218.1362 14.1541  0.38536 210.1948   06.11.1932 17:46
19390508.3731     1.39387 0.60091 170.3182 218.0398 14.1548  0.40133 210.1214   10.05.1939 9:03
19451120.8674     1.40249 0.59938 170.3572 218.0281 14.1321  0.40990 210.0905   02.11.1945 19:32
19520604.7073     1.39719 0.60043 170.3219 218.0288 14.1540  0.40464 210.0979   06.06.1952 16:43
19581218.2821     1.40199 0.59942 170.2809 218.0495 14.1401  0.40943 210.0637   10.12.1958 6:18
19650701.7472     1.39347 0.60090 170.3237 218.0191 14.1688  0.40093 210.1128   03.07.1965 18:13
19711231.9769     1.37334 0.60469 170.4708 217.9712 14.2258  0.38085 210.2829   04.12.1971 0:58
19780622.9652     1.36935 0.60529 170.5706 217.9078 14.2425  0.37684 210.3137   05.06.1978 0:21

                                                                   Table А3
19841214.2656     1.00050 0.68356 180.9155 214.5219 13.8275  0.00693 214.4673   03.12.1984 12:07
19900730.8686     0.99964 0.68370 181.0041 214.4691 13.8333  0.00607 214.4240   30.06.1990 1:08
19960302.2316     0.94939 0.69541 181.8329 214.1410 13.9238 -0.04412 214.3025   01.03.1996 0:43
20010901.9222     0.94569 0.69624 181.9012 214.1068 13.9444 -0.04782 214.2582   31.08.2001 16:07
20070224.5795     0.93760 0.69813 181.9216 214.1023 13.9747 -0.05591 214.2894   03.02.2007 8:34
20120813.5479     0.93186 0.69947 181.9447 214.0906 14.0076 -0.06165 214.3033   02.08.2012 8:09
20180127.5797     0.93382 0.69893 181.9195 214.0991 13.9942 -0.05969 214.3160   06.01.2018 9:19
20230712.7245     0.93031 0.69973 181.8895 214.1139 14.0146 -0.06320 214.3782   01.07.2023 14:17
20281226.2653     0.93451 0.69878 181.8957 214.1101 13.9928 -0.05900 214.3358   05.12.2028 2:17
20340614.3170     0.93805 0.69796 181.8875 214.1170 13.9847 -0.05545 214.3220   03.06.2034 3:08
20391207.4543     0.94238 0.69703 181.9331 214.0878 13.9644 -0.05113 214.2415   06.12.2039 4:33
20450617.1153     0.96902 0.69079 182.3181 213.9200 13.9270 -0.02443 213.8898   05.06.2045 8:47
20510106.8243     0.97198 0.69016 182.3965 213.8723 13.9143 -0.02146 213.8321   05.01.2051 0:01
20561112.3437     1.15460 0.64703 186.2475 211.7413 15.5441  0.16232 213.7283   29.10.2056 5:39
20621017.0579     1.15678 0.64658 186.3663 211.6824 15.5355  0.16454 213.7397   02.10.2062 21:25
20690212.7509     1.41792 0.59009 191.0621 209.5962 16.9132  0.42810 215.5414   27.01.2069 3:44
20750727.8593     1.42314 0.58925 191.2281 209.5297 16.8940  0.43342 215.6093   01.07.2075 4:34
20820115.4216     1.44265 0.58564 191.3498 209.4685 16.8510  0.45296 215.7352   29.12.2081 17:00
20880719.3972     1.45025 0.58432 191.4071 209.4384 16.8248  0.46059 215.7829   02.07.2088 15:51
20950120.7109     1.44705 0.58492 191.3539 209.4648 16.8373  0.45736 215.7580   24.12.2094 23:56
Orbital elements are given for the Epoch J2000. The following of them are denoted with symbols: q - perihelion distance; e - eccentricity; AOP - argument of perihelion; LAN - longitude of ascending node; i - inclination. MD - minimal distance to the Earth's orbit, SL - solar longitude of MD-point. Positive value of minimal distance means that point of such minimum lies outside the Earth orbit, and negative value means that this point is inside the Earth orbit.