|
209p-ids 1901-2100
Computation characteristics We'd like to present the results of simulation of the meteor stream produced by the comet 209P LINEAR aimed to the prediction of shower activity in the years 1901-2100. The simulation was made for the trails of latest 13 revolutions, i.e, from the 1913 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model by E. Lyytinen and T. van Flandern given in their paper [3] was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to convert the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the 185P-ids. The computation considered only gravitational forces. 209p-id predictions are given as short conclusions for the years for which possible activity enhancements are found. Orbit of the comet 185P in 1901-2100 The Author used initial orbital elements of 209P, starting from the perihelion of 1913 and up to 2100 one, presented by Kazuo Kinoshita [2]. Orbital elements of 185P in the period 1901-2100, as well as values of minimal distances to the Earth orbit for these elements and relative solar longitudes are given in Tables A2 (for minimal distanses passed after the perihelion) and A3 (for minimal distanses passed before the perihelion).
Table А2
time of perih. q e AOP LAN i МD. SL. Time of MD passage
- AU - ° ° ° AU ° -
19031220,4322 0,87291 0,70331 140,2097 75,8409 15,2888 -0,03283 81,1408 11.06.2000 19:04
19090108,6847 0,88134 0,70125 140,3839 75,6963 15,2955 -0,02756 80,0851 10.06.2000 16:34
19140205,1662 0,88287 0,70083 140,5212 75,6255 15,3063 -0,02699 79,9090 10.06.2000 12:09
19190301,0139 0,87663 0,70023 144,9696 71,0112 17,6149 -0,05042 77,3387 07.06.2000 19:38
19240229,5943 0,87374 0,70099 145,0615 70,9460 17,6379 -0,05303 77,6172 08.06.2000 2:37
19290226,0459 0,87462 0,70079 145,0216 70,9671 17,6364 -0,05220 77,5250 08.06.2000 0:18
19340222,8918 0,87201 0,70143 145,0106 70,9425 17,6513 -0,05419 77,7745 08.06.2000 6:34
19390221,5068 0,87519 0,70060 145,0351 70,9279 17,6426 -0,05181 77,4265 07.06.2000 21:50
19440301,9876 0,89640 0,69515 145,6735 70,4193 17,7106 -0,03749 74,8891 05.06.2000 6:11
19490319,0783 0,89627 0,69514 145,7658 70,3668 17,7208 -0,03794 74,8835 05.06.2000 6:03
19540327,4523 0,86878 0,70160 146,6171 69,8540 18,0809 -0,06325 77,4723 07.06.2000 22:59
19590315,0988 0,86559 0,70241 146,6825 69,7990 18,1045 -0,06603 77,7775 08.06.2000 6:38
19640229,0928 0,86880 0,70160 146,6267 69,8286 18,0880 -0,06328 77,4432 07.06.2000 22:15
19690214,6785 0,86793 0,70183 146,6144 69,8036 18,0993 -0,06394 77,5029 07.06.2000 23:45
19740205,0737 0,87133 0,70089 146,6799 69,7783 18,0937 -0,06150 77,1338 07.06.2000 14:29
19790209,0264 0,91583 0,68867 149,4547 66,6476 19,0695 -0,03540 70,0541 31.05.2000 5:02
19840226,5688 0,91419 0,68907 149,5566 66,5907 19,0886 -0,03717 70,1674 31.05.2000 7:53
19890309,5595 0,90793 0,69055 149,6333 66,5508 19,1415 -0,04282 70,7036 31.05.2000 21:18
19940317,1679 0,90434 0,69142 149,6557 66,5101 19,1651 -0,04597 70,9937 01.06.2000 4:34
19990324,7178 0,90771 0,69060 149,6447 66,5117 19,1517 -0,04305 70,6843 31.05.2000 20:49
20040402,1633 0,91218 0,68940 149,6559 66,4876 19,1473 -0,03926 70,2563 31.05.2000 10:06
20090415,9744 0,91371 0,68898 149,7295 66,4497 19,1479 -0,03820 70,0986 31.05.2000 6:09
20140506,3242 0,96946 0,67258 152,3932 62,8245 21,2434 0,00295 62,6303 23.05.2000 11:24
20190612,8070 0,96751 0,67328 152,5006 62,7712 21,2586 0,00083 62,7169 23.05.2000 13:34
20240714,4979 0,96442 0,67404 152,4939 62,7695 21,2825 -0,00200 62,9006 23.05.2000 18:09
20290814,2222 0,95999 0,67517 152,5357 62,7175 21,3187 -0,00620 63,1289 23.05.2000 23:51
20340914,2384 0,96479 0,67395 152,5101 62,7321 21,2920 -0,00170 62,8446 23.05.2000 16:45
20391017,3484 0,96891 0,67289 152,5160 62,7058 21,2901 0,00210 62,5680 23.05.2000 9:51
20441123,7658 0,97080 0,67241 152,5982 62,6745 21,2882 0,00360 62,4420 23.05.2000 6:42
20500110,9144 1,03826 0,65328 154,5305 59,8021 22,9958 0,06260 56,9051 17.05.2000 12:35
20550319,3869 1,03619 0,65380 154,6212 59,7510 23,0173 0,06039 56,9561 17.05.2000 13:52
20600519,3469 1,02923 0,65544 154,7127 59,7107 23,0787 0,05348 57,2208 17.05.2000 20:27
20650716,2878 1,02538 0,65638 154,7335 59,6729 23,1064 0,04975 57,3476 17.05.2000 23:37
20700911,7579 1,02922 0,65549 154,6950 59,6887 23,0838 0,05353 57,1977 17.05.2000 19:53
20751108,7392 1,02929 0,65541 154,6599 59,6807 23,0911 0,05370 57,1817 17.05.2000 19:29
20810108,5522 1,03268 0,65454 154,7084 59,6643 23,0767 0,05681 57,0386 17.05.2000 15:55
20860327,3466 1,07226 0,64467 155,6335 58,8059 23,3068 0,09280 55,0219 15.05.2000 13:41
20910625,9735 1,07278 0,64445 155,7566 58,7594 23,3167 0,09300 54,9923 15.05.2000 12:57
20960913,1406 1,03626 0,65259 156,5490 58,4440 23,6695 0,05578 56,1549 16.05.2000 17:54
Table А3
Orbital elements are given for the Epoch J2000. The following of them are denoted with symbols: q - perihelion distance; e - eccentricity; AOP - argument of perihelion; LAN - longitude of ascending node; i - inclination. MD - minimal distance to the Earth's orbit, SL - solar longitude of MD-point. Positive value of minimal distance means that point of such minimum lies outside the Earth orbit, and negative value means that this point is inside the Earth orbit. |