209p-ids 1901-2100: activity predictions

cases of predicted activity
yearday, timeZHRexcomments
-UTmeteors-
196526.05.1965 19:595-7low meteor brightness
201424.05.2014 7:18200-300very high meteor brightness
24.05.2014 7:5550-150very high meteor brightness
201924.05.2019 7:4450-150very high meteor brightness
202225.05.2022 5-73-5very high meteor brightness
202423.05.2024 3:453-5very high meteor brightness
23.05.2024 11:2010-15high meteor brightness
202923.05.2029 9:303-5high meteor brightness
203423.05.2034 21:361-2high meteor brightness
203923.05.2039 23:581-2high meteor brightness
24.05.2039 8:1020-30high meteor brightness
24.05.2039 12:3120-30high meteor brightness
204423.05.2044 16:515-10high meteor brightness
204524.05.2045 3:195-7very low meteor brightness
207421.05.2074 16:433-57high meteor brightness


1965
26.05.1965 19:59 UT. Direct encounter with 1898 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 5-7 is possible, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=115.0°, Dec=+74.4°, v=16.0 km/s.

2014
24.05.2014 7:18 UT. Direct encounter with 1898-1919 trails, mainly with 1903 one. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 200-300 is expected, very high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=122.8°, Dec=+79.1°, v=16.2 km/s.

24.05.2014 7:55 UT. Vertical encounter with 1763-1783 trails (and with some older ones perhaps). During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 50-150 is expected, very high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=122.8°, ec=+79.0°, v=16.2 km/s.
It should also be noted that positive prediction for 2014 was earlier made by Esko Lyytinen [4], so my results confirm his forecast.

2019
24.05.2019 7:44 UT. Direct encounter with 1939 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 50-100 is expected, very high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=123.1°, Dec=+79.9°, v=16.3 km/s.

2022
25.05.2022 5-7 UT. Vertical encounter with 1903 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 3-5 is expected, very high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=118.9°, Dec=+76.7°, v=16.0 km/s.

2024
23.05.2024 3:45 UT. Vertical encounter with 1868 and 1873 trails. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 3-5 is expected, very high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=124.8°, Dec=+80.3°, v=16.3 km/s.

23.05.2024 11:20 UT. Vertical encounter with 1929 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 10-15 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=123.3°, Dec=+80.3°, v=16.4 km/s.

2029
23.05.2029 9:30 UT. Vertical encounter with 1914 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 3-5 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=124.3°, Dec=+81.0°, v=16.5 km/s.

2034
23.05.2034 21:36 UT. Vertical encounter with 1924 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 1-2 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=123.8°, Dec=+80.7°, v=16.5 km/s.

2039
23.05.2039 23:58 UT. Vertical encounter with 1853 and 1858 trails. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 1-2 is expected, very high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=125.8°, Dec=+81.1°, v=16.5 km/s.

24.05.2039 8:10 UT. Direct encounter with 1939 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 20-30 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=124.4°, Dec=+80.4°, v=16.4 km/s.

24.05.2039 12:31 UT. Direct encounter with 1994 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 20-30 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=124.5°, Dec=+80.0°, v=16.3 km/s.

2044
23.05.2044 16:51 UT. Direct encounter with 1999 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 5-10 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=125.0°, Dec=+80.0°, v=16.3 km/s.

2045
24.05.2045 3:19 UT. Direct encounter with 2009 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 5-7 is expected, very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=122.2°, Dec=+78.8°, v=16.2 km/s.

2074
21.05.2074 16:43 UT. Direct encounter with 1979 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 3-5 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=143.7°, Dec=+84.5°, v=17.0 km/s.