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72p-ids 1901-2100
Computation characteristics We'd like to present the results of simulation of the meteor stream produced by the comet 72P Denning-Fujikawa aimed to the prediction of shower activity in the years 1901-2100. The simulation was made for the trails of latest 30 revolutions, i.e, from the 1727 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model by E. Lyytinen and T. van Flandern given in their paper [3] was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to convert the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the 72P-ids. The computation considered only gravitational forces The following parts of trails were computed: the first 15 rev. trails for ejection velocities [-50;100] m/s, 16-30 rev. trails - [-30;50] m/s 72p-id predictions are given as short conclusions for the years for which possible activity enhancements are found. Orbit of the comet 72P in 1901-2100 The Author used initial orbital elements of 72P, starting from the perihelion of 1727 and up to 2087 one, presented by Kazuo Kinoshita [2]. Orbital elements of 72P in the period 1901-2100, as well as values of minimal distances to the Earth orbit for these elements and relative solar longitudes are given in Tables A2 (for minimal distanses passed after the perihelia) and A3 (for minimal distanses passed before the perihelia).
Table А2
time of perih. q e AOP LAN i МD. SL. Time of MD passage
- AU - ° ° ° AU ° -
1908.1.11.4715 0.74376 0.82564 313.6795 66.0073 6.9955 -0.03279 261.3845 16.02.1908 13:35
1916.10.8.4329 0.74078 0.82562 330.9269 48.2613 8.2706 -0.07656 259.7448 12.11.1916 12:09
1925.6.29.7771 0.75805 0.82325 330.2931 48.0936 8.2450 -0.06993 256.5286 03.08.1925 2:19
1934.5.25.7474 0.76356 0.82251 330.3077 48.0677 8.2347 -0.06818 255.7215 28.06.1934 19:10
1943.4.22.2579 0.75853 0.82319 330.4147 47.9323 8.2560 -0.07012 256.4060 26.05.1943 13:03
1952.1.2.6168 0.73566 0.82630 335.6322 41.7517 9.0704 -0.09501 257.9000 06.02.1952 8:29
1960.9.13.9620 0.77942 0.81992 334.2148 41.6936 8.6354 -0.07452 250.3973 16.10.1960 19:25
1969.9.23.0417 0.78415 0.81934 334.2498 41.6307 8.6264 -0.07295 249.6533 25.10.1969 14:52
1978.10.1.7223 0.77970 0.81989 334.3306 41.5167 8.6461 -0.07476 250.2761 03.11.1978 12:57
1987.8.1.9883 0.76341 0.82154 338.4541 36.5020 9.3950 -0.09542 250.9730 04.09.1987 1:43
1996.5.29.7763 0.79019 0.81780 337.5758 36.3892 9.1271 -0.08214 246.1745 30.06.1996 13:02
2005.6.20.0048 0.79669 0.81689 337.5904 36.3680 9.1082 -0.07971 245.1626 21.07.2005 9:03
2014.7.11.3367 0.78418 0.81907 337.8399 36.1160 9.1687 -0.08513 247.0352 12.08.2014 10:01
2023.6.15.0143 0.78092 0.81869 346.7197 26.7091 10.9459 -0.12238 244.3502 15.07.2023 9:19
2032.5.13.1869 0.79540 0.81671 346.2562 26.5766 10.7772 -0.11408 241.5572 11.06.2032 17:25
2041.6.5.7200 0.79950 0.81630 346.3065 26.5648 10.7587 -0.11237 240.9020 04.07.2041 23:09
2050.6.29.9855 0.79646 0.81667 346.3363 26.4633 10.7729 -0.11381 241.3379 29.07.2050 10:39
2059.9.17.2627 0.82234 0.81276 348.9359 24.6895 11.1620 -0.11211 236.5086 13.10.2059 22:06
2068.11.9.2165 0.82602 0.81222 348.5717 24.6381 11.1420 -0.10939 235.5153 05.12.2068 15:03
2078.2.10.4464 0.82510 0.81232 348.9114 24.6357 11.0870 -0.11020 236.0367 08.03.2078 22:42
2087.5.3.2910 0.82616 0.81222 348.9312 24.5366 11.0830 -0.10973 235.7590 29.05.2087 16:42
2096.7.21.3383 0.82205 0.81267 349.0630 24.4846 11.1123 -0.11217 236.5449 17.08.2096 1:33
Table А3
1908.1.11.4715 0.74376 0.82564 313.6795 66.0073 6.9955 0.11460 133.4588 02.12.1907 16:24
1916.10.8.4329 0.74078 0.82562 330.9269 48.2613 8.2706 -0.14548 133.7429 30.08.1916 11:41
1925.6.29.7771 0.75805 0.82325 330.2931 48.0936 8.2450 -0.14527 135.4766 22.05.1925 16:44
1934.5.25.7474 0.76356 0.82251 330.3077 48.0677 8.2347 -0.14515 136.3200 17.04.1934 23:42
1943.4.22.2579 0.75853 0.82319 330.4147 47.9323 8.2560 -0.14549 135.5244 15.03.1943 5:11
1952.1.2.6168 0.73566 0.82630 335.6322 41.7517 9.0704 -0.15995 131.8035 24.11.1951 21:59
1960.9.13.9620 0.77942 0.81992 334.2148 41.6936 8.6354 -0.15167 136.9334 08.08.1960 14:55
1969.9.23.0417 0.78415 0.81934 334.2498 41.6307 8.6264 -0.15130 137.7046 18.08.1969 0:55
1978.10.1.7223 0.77970 0.81989 334.3306 41.5167 8.6461 -0.15181 136.9368 26.08.1978 9:58
1987.8.1.9883 0.76341 0.82154 338.4541 36.5020 9.3950 -0.16428 134.1980 26.06.1987 5:53
1996.5.29.7763 0.79019 0.81780 337.5758 36.3892 9.1271 -0.15822 137.5314 24.04.1996 18:10
2005.6.20.0048 0.79669 0.81689 337.5904 36.3680 9.1082 -0.15731 138.6976 16.05.2005 12:18
2014.7.11.3367 0.78418 0.81907 337.8399 36.1160 9.1687 -0.15928 136.5247 05.06.2014 21:40
2023.6.15.0143 0.78092 0.81869 346.7197 26.7091 10.9459 -0.18145 138.4988 12.05.2023 15:33
2032.5.13.1869 0.79540 0.81671 346.2562 26.5766 10.7772 -0.17650 140.5658 11.04.2032 0:08
2041.6.5.7200 0.79950 0.81630 346.3065 26.5648 10.7587 -0.17524 141.4726 04.05.2041 23:09
2050.6.29.9855 0.79646 0.81667 346.3363 26.4633 10.7729 -0.17610 140.7679 28.05.2050 22:08
2059.9.17.2627 0.82234 0.81276 348.9359 24.6895 11.1620 -0.17045 149.0996 20.08.2059 9:08
2068.11.9.2165 0.82602 0.81222 348.5717 24.6381 11.1420 -0.16959 149.6073 12.10.2068 19:57
2078.2.10.4464 0.82510 0.81232 348.9114 24.6357 11.0870 -0.16858 149.5650 13.01.2078 19:55
2087.5.3.2910 0.82616 0.81222 348.9312 24.5366 11.0830 -0.16813 149.7730 05.04.2087 19:59
2096.7.21.3383 0.82205 0.81267 349.0630 24.4846 11.1123 -0.16970 148.8066 23.06.2096 7:32
Orbital elements are given for the Epoch J2000. The following of them are denoted with symbols: q - perihelion distance; e - eccentricity; AOP - argument of perihelion; LAN - longitude of ascending node; i - inclination. MD - minimal distance to the Earth's orbit, SL - solar longitude of MD-point. Positive value of minimal distance means that point of such minimum lies outside the Earth orbit, and negative value means that this point is inside the Earth orbit. |