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73p-ids 1901-2100
Computation characteristics We'd like to present the results of simulation of the meteor stream produced by the comet 73P Hartley 2 aimed to the prediction of shower activity in the years 1901-2100. The simulation was made for the trails of latest q0 revolutions, i.e, from the 1886 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model by E. Lyytinen and T. van Flandern given in their paper [3] was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to convert the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the 73P-ids. The computation considered only gravitational forces. 73p-id predictions are given as short conclusions for the years for which possible activity enhancements are found. Orbit of the comet 73P in 1901-2100 The Author used initial orbital elements of 73P, starting from the perihelion of 1886 and up to 2100 one, presented by Kazuo Kinoshita [2]. Orbital elements of 73P in the period 1901-2100, as well as values of minimal distances to the Earth orbit for these elements and relative solar longitudes are given in Tables A2 (for minimal distanses passed after the perihelion) and A3 (for minimal distanses passed before the perihelion).
Table А2
time of perih. q e AOP LAN i МD. SL. Time of MD passage
- AU - ° ° ° AU ° -
2027.12.22.4209 0,91866 0,69963 214,8247 52,0323 6,2222 -0,10480 122,5983 19.01.2028 11:57
2033.4.29.2571 0,91515 0,70051 214,9397 51,9641 6,2182 -0,10527 123,6704 27.05.2033 10:35
2038.8.25.7835 0,89817 0,70439 215,6233 51,4268 6,1873 -0,10689 128,3188 25.09.2038 5:53
2043.12.11.0483 0,89381 0,70546 215,6334 51,4191 6,1906 -0,10729 129,3284 10.01.2044 13:32
2049.3.25.1672 0,89628 0,70490 215,6461 51,3931 6,1847 -0,10701 128,7624 23.04.2049 21:35
2054.7.08.2259 0,89390 0,70548 215,5938 51,4086 6,1875 -0,10670 129,3575 10.08.2054 8:45
2059.10.24.9176 0,89834 0,70450 215,6732 51,3266 6,1776 -0,10623 128,3613 25.11.2059 9:10
2065.2.14.7404 0,90672 0,70242 215,8743 51,1846 6,1451 -0,10506 126,4846 16.03.2065 5:52
2070.6.14.3096 0,90878 0,70209 215,9570 51,1057 6,1358 -0,10475 125,9977 12.07.2070 18:59
2076.1.10.6445 1,00638 0,68100 260,9696 7,3394 2,6174 0,04633 101,5312 21.01.2076 3:54
2081.8.20.8588 1,00595 0,68106 261,1636 7,1943 2,6160 0,04628 101,9429 31.08.2081 8:27
2087.3.13.7832 1,05839 0,66603 333,0910 292,8408 8,1279 0,06264 99,1885 24.03.2087 19:27
2092.11.03.9222 1,05462 0,66689 333,2774 292,7220 8,1489 0,05925 99,6272 14.11.2092 2:40
2098.6.11.7302 1,00255 0,67817 334,5640 292,0835 8,4219 0,01779 107,3119 25.06.2098 23:53
Table А3
1903.4.12,0902 1,06982 0,65838 191,1239 78,5703 17,6283 0,05823 80,782 31.03.1903 0:58
1908.10.13,1381 1,02008 0,66997 192,2640 77,7757 17,3801 0,01217 78,4021 29.09.1908 23:38
1914.3.20,3868 1,01556 0,67107 192,3090 77,7590 17,3986 0,00787 78,1741 08.03.1914 2:06
1919.8.20,0506 1,01217 0,67181 192,3537 77,7356 17,3868 0,00473 77,9901 08.08.1919 15:59
1925.1.15.2175 1,00755 0,67297 192,3419 77,7393 17,4091 0,00027 77,759 05.01.1925 12:35
1930.6.14.1967 1,01142 0,67176 192,3475 77,7273 17,3919 0,00400 77,9428 04.06.1930 22:54
1935.11.08.0173 1,00958 0,67211 192,2941 77,7386 17,4030 0,00213 77,8548 29.10.1935 12:31
1941.4.06.0559 1,01449 0,67104 192,3224 77,7052 17,3755 0,00690 78,0696 27.03.1941 8:39
1946.9.07.9771 1,02139 0,66947 192,3912 77,6809 17,3350 0,01365 78,387 29.08.1946 0:58
1952.2.15.8302 1,02419 0,66882 192,4641 77,6334 17,3160 0,01645 78,4774 05.02.1952 11:15
1957.9.22.7242 1,10322 0,65161 194,1445 77,1593 17,0121 0,09593 81,4187 12.09.1957 22:20
1963.5.15.4411 1,10353 0,65151 194,2502 77,1114 17,0042 0,09636 81,4153 05.05.1963 13:33
1968.10.23.8084 0,97477 0,68499 197,7875 70,6136 11,5132 -0,01615 67,845 07.10.1968 5:11
1974.4.05.1130 0,97149 0,68582 197,8723 70,5788 11,5164 -0,01859 67,333 19.03.1974 12:39
1979.9.02.7804 0,94077 0,69293 198,7685 69,9533 11,4096 -0,03965 61,8629 13.08.1979 19:51
1985.1.11.4639 0,93646 0,69398 198,7948 69,9459 11,4204 -0,04267 61,1164 22.12.1984 3:16
1990.5.19.3016 0,93630 0,69403 198,8077 69,9361 11,4123 -0,04273 61,077 29.04.1990 0:49
1995.9.22.8899 0,93279 0,69485 198,7702 69,9465 11,4239 -0,04529 60,4604 02.09.1995 5:21
2001.1.27.7158 0,93737 0,69379 198,7770 69,9203 11,4061 -0,04091 61,480 11.01.1901 8:06
2006.6.06.9564 0,93914 0,69320 198,8066 69,8938 11,3958 -0,03961 61,7625 21.05.1906 16:24
2011.10.16.7527 0,94278 0,69220 198,8628 69,8430 11,3791 -0,03679 62,3605 30.09.1911 22:17
2017.3.16.4134 0,97218 0,68546 199,3805 69,6625 11,2367 -0,01399 67,0124 02.03.1917 17:40
2022.8.24.9006 0,97295 0,68525 199,4773 69,6111 11,2275 -0,01315 67,1182 10.08.1922 17:58
2027.12.22.4209 0,91866 0,69963 214,8247 52,0323 6,2222 -0,00678 48,7279 26.11.1927 16:47
2033.4.29.2571 0,91515 0,70051 214,9397 51,9641 6,2182 -0,00785 48,1227 02.04.1933 14:25
2038.8.25.7835 0,89817 0,70439 215,6233 51,4268 6,1873 -0,01267 45,1116 27.07.1938 19:23
2043.12.11.0483 0,89381 0,70546 215,6334 51,4191 6,1906 -0,01413 44,3598 11.11.1943 3:00
2049.3.25.1672 0,89628 0,70490 215,6461 51,3931 6,1847 -0,01325 44,7776 23.02.1949 0:24
2054.7.08.2259 0,89390 0,70548 215,5938 51,4086 6,1875 -0,01398 44,2058 10.06.1954 19:23
2059.10.24.9176 0,89834 0,70450 215,6732 51,3266 6,1776 -0,01232 44,9763 26.09.1959 19:49
2065.2.14.7404 0,90672 0,70242 215,8743 51,1846 6,1451 -0,00905 46,4768 17.01.1965 15:15
2070.6.14.3096 0,90878 0,70209 215,9570 51,1057 6,1358 -0,00815 46,8532 16.05.1970 16:34
2076.1.10.6445 1,00638 0,68100 260,9696 7,3394 2,6174 0,04287 73,2428 29.12.1975 15:32
2081.8.20.8588 1,00595 0,68106 261,1636 7,1943 2,6160 0,04284 73,1266 08.08.1981 10:13
Orbital elements are given for the Epoch J2000. The following of them are denoted with symbols: q - perihelion distance; e - eccentricity; AOP - argument of perihelion; LAN - longitude of ascending node; i - inclination. MD - minimal distance to the Earth's orbit, SL - solar longitude of MD-point. Positive value of minimal distance means that point of such minimum lies outside the Earth orbit, and negative value means that this point is inside the Earth orbit. |