73p-ids 1901-2100: activity predictions

73p-ids 1901-2100: activity predictions

cases of predicted activity
yearday, timeZHRexcomments
-UTmeteors-
191407.06.1914 14:4950-70very low meteor brightness
192507.06.1925 22:181-2very low meteor brightness
193008.06.1930 6:30500-1000low meteor brightness
193607.06.1936 20:24~1very low meteor brightness
194107.06.1941 17:37~50low meteor brightness
195207.06.1952 6-101-2very low meteor brightness
197219.04.1972 15:413-5low meteor brightness
12.08.1972 21:288-10low meteor brightness
197430.05.1974 9:1320-30high meteor brightness
198503.05.1930 9:405-10high meteor brightness
199829.04.1998 3:301low meteor brightness
200108.05.2001 1:0410-20high meteor brightness
200603.05.2006 0:333-5high meteor brightness
201730.05.2017 17:343-5high meteor brightness
202231.05.2022 3:1150low meteor brightness
31.05.2022 5:15600-700, up to 10000-100000high meteor brightness
26.06.2022 2:582-3low meteor brightness
203306.05.2033 10-1550, up to 300high meteor brightness
203907.08.2039 8:4420-30low meteor brightness
203919-20.08.203910-15very low meteor brightness
204929.04.2049 4-1650-60low meteor brightness
02.05.2049 12:275-7high meteor brightness
02.05.2049 19:4015-20very high meteor brightness
206008.05.2060 15:182-4low meteor brightness
13.08.2060 13:145-10high meteor brightness
206215.07.2062 10-17<1high meteor brightness
206507.05.2065 10-17<1average meteor brightness
206730.07.2067 12:091-2high meteor brightness
206915-16.04.2069 21-310-15very low meteor brightness
207021.04.2070 17:303-5very low meteor brightness
01.05.2070 17:303-5low meteor brightness
207913.04.2079 6:475-7very low meteor brightness
208413.04.2084 1:4215-20very low meteor brightness
208717.07.2087 1:561-2very low meteor brightness
209819.07.2098 20:082-3low meteor brightness
21.07.2098 4:541-2very low meteor brightness


1914
07.06.1914 14:49 UT. Direct encounter with 1903 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 50-70 is expected, very low brightness, in radiorange more prominent activity is possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=225.0°, Dec=+45.0°, v=13.8 km/s.

1925
07.06.1925 22:18 UT. Direct encounter with 1914 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 1-2 is expected, very low brightness, in radiorange more prominent activity is possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=217.5°, Dec=+44.5°, v=13.9 km/s.

1930
08.06.1930 6:30 UT. Vertical encounter with 1892 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 500-1000 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=219.3°, Dec=+44.5°, v=13.8 km/s.

1936
07.06.1936 20:24 UT. Vertical encounter with 1919 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax around 1 meteor is expected, very low brightness, in radiorange more prominent activity is possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=222.9°, Dec=+43.4°, v=13.9 km/s.

1941
07.06.1941 17:37 UT. Direct encounter with 1897 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 50 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=217.4°, Dec=+44.2°, v=13.8 km/s.

1952
07.06.1952 6-10UT. Vertical encounter with 1897 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax around 1-2 meteor is expected, very low brightness, in radiorange more prominent activity is possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=219.1°, Dec=+43.4°, v=13.7 km/s.

1972
19.04.1972 15:41 UT. Vertical encounter with 1886 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 3-5 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=189.9°, Dec=-1.5°, v=16.3 km/s.

12.08.1972 21:28 UT. Vertical encounter with 1886 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 8-10 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=162.2°, Dec=+5.2°, v=16.2 km/s.

1974
30.05.1974 9:13 UT. Vertical encounter with 1925 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 20-30 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=205.0°, Dec=+23.5°, v=11.5 km/s.

1985
03.05.1930 9:40 UT. Vertical encounter with 1897, 1903, 1908, 1914 trails. During May 3 meteor activity with ZHRmax of 5-10 around the given time is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=198.4°, Dec=+0.8°, v=14.9 km/s.

1998
29.04.1998 3:30 UT. Vertical encounter with 1886 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 1 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=192.5°, Dec=-0.7°, v=14.9 km/s.

2001
08.05.2001 1:04 UT. Vertical encounter with 1930 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 10-20 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=201.1°, Dec=+4.1°, v=14.1 km/s.

2006
03.05.2006 0:33 UT. Vertical encounter with 1897 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 3-5 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=198.0°, Dec=+0.2°, v=15.0 km/s.

2017
30.05.2017 17:34 UT. Vertical encounter with 1941 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 3-5 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=211.2°, Dec=+29.7°, v=12.4 km/s.

2022
31.05.2022 3:11 UT. Vertical encounter with 1892-1941 trails. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 50 is expected, low brightness. Also some activity up to 20 meteors on ZHR scale are likely, especially around 15:10 UT. Theoretical radiant: RA=206.7°, Dec=+26.0°, v=11.7 km/s.

31.05.2022 5:15 UT. Vertical encounter with 1979-1995 trails. For the given period of time the basic model gives meteor activity with ZHRmax of 600-700 is expected. However, considering that in 1995 the comet 73P broke into several parts, the real activity should be one-two orders higher, up to 10000-100000 meteors on ZHR scale with high average brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=209.5°, Dec=+28.0°, v=12.1 km/s.

26.06.2022 2:58 UT. Vertical encounter with 1930 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 2-3 is expected, very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=170.0°, Dec=-10.2°, v=9.3 km/s.

2033
06.05.2033 10-15 UT. Vertical encounter with 1903-1919 trails. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 50 is expected (but some possibility for outburst up to 200-300 meteors on ZHR scale is present), high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=197.7°, Dec=+5.8°, v=13.7 km/s.

2039
07.08.2039 8:44 UT. Vertical encounter with 1903-1914 trails. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 20-30 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=159.8°, Dec=-2.8°, v=14.5 km/s.

19-20.08.2039 UT. Vertical encounter with 1903 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 10-15 is expected, very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=167.8°, Dec=9.8°, v=16.6 km/s.

2049
29.04.2049 4-16 UT. Vertical encounter with 1968-1990 trails. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 50-60 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=195.5°, Dec=2.7°, v=15.0 km/s.

02.05.2049 12:27 UT. Vertical encounter with 1892 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 5-7 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=196.7°, Dec=3.7°, v=14.5 km/s.

02.05.2049 19:40 UT. Vertical encounter with 1930 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 15-20 is expected, very high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=197.1°, Dec=3.9°, v=14.5 km/s.

2060
08.05.2060 15:18 UT. Vertical encounter with 1892 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 2-4 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=195.5°, Dec=8.9°, v=13.5 km/s.

13.08.2060 13:14 UT. Vertical encounter with 1930 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 5-10 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=163.2°, Dec=-2.6°, v=15.2 km/s.

2062
15.07.2062 10-17 UT. Vertical encounter with 1935 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity on the level of separate meteors is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=152.4°, Dec=-24.9°, v=11.6 km/s.

2065
07.05.2065 10:21 UT. Vertical encounter with 1941 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity on the level of separate meteors is expected, average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=198.9°, Dec=7.8°, v=13.8 km/s.

2067
30.07.2067 12:09 UT. Vertical encounter with 1935 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 1-2 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=158.0°, Dec=-7.3°, v=13.0 km/s.

2069
15-16.04.2069 21-3 UT. Vertical encounter with 1935 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 10-15 is expected, very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=191.2°, Dec=-5.9°, v=18.7 km/s.

2070
21.04.2070 17:30 UT. Vertical encounter with 1941 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 3-5 is expected, very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=189.1°, Dec=-8.0°, v=16.7 km/s.

01.05.2070 22:40 UT. Vertical encounter with 1990 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 3-5 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=196.2°, Dec=3.2°, v=14.6 km/s.

2079
13.04.2079 6:47 UT. Vertical encounter with 1935 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 5-7 is expected, very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=190.2°, Dec=-5.4°, v=19.5 km/s.

2084
13.04.2084 1:42 UT. Vertical encounter with 1935 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 15-20 is expected, very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=174.0°, Dec=3.7°, v=19.5 km/s.

2087
17.07.2087 1:56 UT. Vertical encounter with 1952 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 1-2 is expected, very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=154.4°, Dec=-7.2°, v=11.7 km/s.

2098
19.07.2098 20:08 UT. Vertical encounter with 2006 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 2-3 is expected, low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=154.4°, Dec=-8.0°, v=12.2 km/s.

21.07.2098 4:54 UT. Vertical encounter with 2001 trail. During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 1-2 is expected, very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=154.1°, Dec=-9.1°, v=12.1 km/s.