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76p-ids 1901-2100
Computation characteristics We'd like to present the results of simulation of the meteor stream produced by the comet 76P West-Kohoutek-Ikemura aimed to the prediction of shower activity in the years 1901-2100. The simulation was made for the trails of latest 4 revolutions, i.e, from the 1975 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model by E. Lyytinen and T. van Flandern given in their paper [3] was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to convert the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the 76P-ids. The computation considered only gravitational forces The following parts of trails were computed: the first 15 rev. trails for ejection velocities [-50;100] m/s. 76p-id predictions are given as short conclusions for the years for which possible activity enhancements are found. Orbit of the comet 76P in 1901-2100 The Author used initial orbital elements of 76P, starting from the perihelion of 1975 and up to 2097 one, presented by Kazuo Kinoshita [2]. Orbital elements of 76P in the period 1901-2100, as well as values of minimal distances to the Earth orbit for these elements and relative solar longitudes are given in Tables A2 (for minimal distanses passed after the perihelia) and A3 (for minimal distanses passed before the perihelia).
Table А2
time of perih. q e AOP LAN i МD. SL. Time of MD passage
- AU - ° ° ° AU ° -
1975.2.26,0887 1,39781 0,58181 85,3463 358,0130 30,0758 0,41389 264,5274 27.02.1975 11:25
1981.4.10,9243 1,40021 0,58137 85,2982 358,1332 30,0617 0,41627 264,5178 12.04.1981 5:08
Table А3
1987.7.26,8738 1,57048 0,54442 84,2131 359,8427 30,5772 0,58632 263,9721 26.07.1987 16:14
1993.12.24,8694 1,57668 0,54331 84,1676 359,9736 30,5404 0,59252 263,9769 24.12.1993 13:18
2000.5.31,7355 1,59580 0,53986 84,1244 0,0712 30,4996 0,61164 263,9697 31.05.2000 7:43
2006.11.19,2655 1,60338 0,53849 84,1070 0,1246 30,4584 0,61922 263,9728 18.11.2006 19:12
2013.5.7,1985 1,60024 0,53905 84,1233 0,0553 30,4828 0,61608 263,9605 06.05.2013 19:03
2019.10.25,5894 1,60477 0,53821 84,1249 0,0209 30,4565 0,62060 263,9494 25.10.2019 5:11
2026.4.13,0939 1,59676 0,53951 84,1090 0,0239 30,4973 0,61259 263,9334 12.04.2026 17:14
2032.9.21,7332 1,59139 0,54058 84,1029 359,9566 30,5100 0,60723 263,9033 21.09.2032 10:10
2039.3.3,6009 1,58581 0,54148 84,0572 0,0522 30,5375 0,60164 263,8947 03.03.2039 4:59
2045.7.26,4654 1,54129 0,55031 83,8327 0,5329 30,6174 0,55713 263,8523 25.07.2045 16:04
2051.12.3,3350 1,54085 0,55038 83,7720 0,6900 30,6136 0,55670 263,8506 02.12.2051 9:38
2057.12.23,9676 1,16381 0,64075 81,5986 1,8521 27,3292 0,17962 261,8686 22.12.2057 10:16
2063.10.26,7300 1,16395 0,64079 81,5501 1,9656 27,3260 0,17978 261,8451 25.10.2063 2:31
2069.7.24,8428 1,02257 0,67630 79,7824 3,8721 25,6105 0,03887 260,0004 21.07.2069 21:35
2075.3.8,2791 1,02078 0,67675 79,7372 3,9570 25,6227 0,03712 259,9519 05.03.2075 6:32
2080.10.8,5395 0,98694 0,68469 79,4748 4,5084 25,6126 0,00355 259,4999 05.10.2080 2:27
2086.4.22,9833 0,98351 0,68544 79,4406 4,5650 25,6379 0,00015 259,4409 19.04.2086 12:01
2091.10.29,4857 0,97630 0,68716 79,4311 4,5907 25,6679 -0,00705 259,3777 25.10.2091 23:29
2097.5.2,1019 0,97170 0,68812 79,4167 4,6190 25,7038 -0,01163 259,3266 28.04.2097 13:39
Orbital elements are given for the Epoch J2000. The following of them are denoted with symbols: q - perihelion distance; e - eccentricity; AOP - argument of perihelion; LAN - longitude of ascending node; i - inclination. MD - minimal distance to the Earth's orbit, SL - solar longitude of MD-point. Positive value of minimal distance means that point of such minimum lies outside the Earth orbit, and negative value means that this point is inside the Earth orbit. |