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Draconids 1901-2100: activity predictions
1907 09.10.1907 ~21:50 UT. A very thin trails channel, the most close - 1824 trail. Its characteristics are the following Vej=-27.0 - -28.0 m/s, fM(MD)=-0.041. SL=196.742°. The most likely is total absence of activity, but there are some chances of meteor action with ZHR not higher than 2-3 meteors. Average brightness should be high, with high share of fireballs. Theoretical radiant: RA=259.5°, Dec=+49.3°, v=17.5 km/s. 1913 09.10.1913 ~18:50 UT. A channel of 1817-1863 trails intersects the Earth's orbit in the end of September, the most close is 1817 trail. Characteristics - Vej=-19.0 m/s, fM(MD)=-0.546. SL=197.077°. A small meteor enhancement is possible around the given moment of time with high share of bright meteors. Theoretical radiant: RA=260.6°, Dec=+55.6°, v=20.8 km/s. 1926 09.10.1926 17:16 UT. At the end of September a channel of trails intersects the Earth's orbit. The most close is 1817 trail. Characteristics - Vej=-19.20 км/с, fM(MD)=0.468. SL=196.685°. 09.10.1926 21:54 UT. The Earth passes at 0.00232 AU from 1913 trail. Characteristics - Vej=-31.70 m/s, fM(MD)=7.989. SL=196.876°. Very high density of young 2 rev. trail gives good chances for activity enhancements, a high share of bright meteors is likely. ZHRex=10. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.1°, Dec=+54.1°, v=20.4 km/s.
1927 09.10.1927 ~20:30 UT. At the end of September the Earth's orbit is intersected by a channel of trails. The most close trails are 1852 and 1859 ones. Their density are very low. Characteristics: Vej=2.4-4.7 m/s, fM(MD)=0.082-0.159. SL=196.564° - 196.579°. Activity is very unlikely. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.9°, Dec=+50.7°, v=19.4 km/s. 1932 08.10.1932 23:37 UT. Encounter with particles between 1831 and 1838 trails. Characteristics: dT(1838)=0.31, Vej=-36.24 m/s, fM(MD)=0.113. SL=196.415°. The value of parameter dT leaves chances for activity, but very low density of trails as well as considerable negative ejection velosity makes them virtually equal to zero. Separate bright meteors are still possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.8°, Dec=+54.3°, v=20.5 km/s. 1933 09.10.1933 20:17 UT. Direct encounter with 1900 and 1907 trails. Their maximums are almost coincide with each other. ZHEex is ~7000 meteors. Peak of activity is expected to be very sharp. Duration of activity above the half of maximum level should be not longer than 1.5-2.0 hours. Quite high ejection velosity implies that majority of meteors will be faint and very faint. Theoretical radiants: for 1900 trail: RA=262.3°, Dec=+53.8°, v=20.4 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+53.8°, v=20.4 km/s.
1939 09.10.1939 2:38 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1817 and 1824 trails. Characteristics: dT(1817)=0.13, Vej=-20.39 m/s, fM(MD)=1.113. SL=196.677°. Value of parameter dT for 1817 trail is quite low, i.e. the Earth passes quite close to this trail. Also, density of trails as follows from fM(MD) value, is comparatively high. On the other hand, ejection velosity has considerable negative value. Still, sufficient activity up to ZHR~30 meteors with high share of bright one is very possible. Theoretical radiants: RA=261.9°, Dec=+53.6°, v=20.3 km/s. 1940 09.10.1940 ~11:10 and 13:47 UT. Double maximum. Direct encounter with a number of trails. Meaningful encounters - with 1894 and 1926 trails. Ejection velocities are 8,2-8,3 m/s и 98,6 m/s, respectively. So we expect that 1894 trail will give ZHR of 3-4 meteors at 11:10 UT 9 October, the meteors will be mostly faint, though some bright ones are also possible. The most part of activity should be in visual range. Maximum of the second (1926) trail should be very good in radiorange, but visual activity perhaps will be the same - with ZHR of 4-5 meteors, althoug the share of bright meteors will dramatically increase. Maximum of activity is to occur at 13:47 UT 9 October. In radiorange pu to stormy activity levels of activity are possible. Theoretical radiants: for 1894 trail: RA=261.2°, Dec=+52.4°, v=19.9 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.3°, Dec=+53.8°, v=20.5 km/s.
1946 10.10.1946 4:06 UT. The Earth encounters to a channel of fresh trails. The most close will be 1907 trail, but activity should also be produced by 1900, 1913, 1920, 1926, 1933 and 1940 trails. Parameters of the encounter are very favorable - ejection velocity is around 3 m/s, fM(fMD)=~3.2. It means that around maximum time a very strong meteor outburst will happen, with ZHR about 20000-30000 meteors. Among the bulk of faint meteors numbers of bright ones should be also quite abundant. It's also likely that increase of activity will be more gradual and at the very beginning average meteor brightness will be lower, that at the maximum and following quite rapid decline. Theoretical radiants: for 1900 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.0°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.0°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1913 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.0°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1920 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.0°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1926 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.0°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1933 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.0°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1940 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.0°, v=20.5 km/s.
1949 08.10.1949 13:46 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles of 1887 and 1894 trails. Characteristics: dT(1817)=0.3231, Vej=18.26 m/s, fM(MD)=-0.229. SL=195.655°. The Earth passes through a quite compact, though not dense trails channel, closest to 1887 trail. Low density and dT parameter value makes chances of somehow notable activity very low. But they are greater for radiorange. Theoretical radiants: RA=261.6°, Dec=+50.6°, v=19.3 km/s. 1952 09.10.1952 9:56 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1817 and 1824 trails. Characteristics: dT(1824)=0.3266, Vej=-22.36 m/s, fM(MD)=0.470. SL=195.655°. Considering low trails density and quite high value of dT parameter, activity is very unlikely. Some scattered bright meteors are possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.8°, Dec=+54.1°, v=20.5 km/s. 09.10.1952 15:39 UT. The Earth passes trought 1920 trail and approachs to 1926 trail. Encounter happens at trails parts with high negative ejection velocities. As a rusult, a shout outburst with ZHR ~500 meteors is expected, among them many bright meteors and fireballs. Theoretical radiant: for 1920 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.1°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.2°, v=20.5 km/s.
1954 10.10.1954, somewhere between 15:50-19:06 UT. On 29 September the Earth's orbit is crossed by 1852 trail. Characteristics: fM(fMD)=4.291, Vej=-40 m/s. The most likely is total absense of activity, but small chances for separate bright meteors remain, with ZHR not higher than 1-2 meteors. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.4°, Dec=+56.4°, v=21.3 km/s. 1959 10.10.1959 19:57 UT. The Earth encounters with 1880 trail. This happens at the trail part with small negative ejection velocity. One can expect a Draconid outburst with quite bright meteors and ZHR=70. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.0°, Dec=+56.4°, v=21.3 km/s. 1965 09.10.1969 21:01 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1824 and 1831 trails. Characteristics: dT(1824)=0.0712, Vej=-25.10 m/s, fM(MD)=0.180, SL=196.810°. Low density of 1824 and favorable dT parameter value gives good chances for low activity with ZHR=5-10 and high dhare of bright meteors and fireballs. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.7°, Dec=+55.0°, v=20.8 km/s. 1967 09.10.1967 14:30 UT +/-2h. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1907 and 1913 trails. Characteristics: dT(1907)=0.47211, Vej=67.58 m/s, fM(MD)=1.581. SL=196.065°. Unfavorable value of dT parameter practically exclude chances of activity. It could occur only in radiorange, as ejection velocities are very high. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.3°, Dec=+54.8°, v=20.9 m/s. 1974 09.10.1974 5:38 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1913 and 1920 trails. Characteristics: dT(1913)=0.120, Vej=81.75 m/s, fM(MD)=4.211. SL=195.903°. A quite dense 1913 trail, low dT parameter value and very high ejection velocity will result perhaps in absense of visual activity, but there are some chances for some radioactivity. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.4°, Dec=+55.3°, v=21.0 km/s. 1978 08.10.1978 12-13 UT. The Earth encounters with 1946 trail intersecting the Earth's orbit on 11 October. Characteristics: fM(fMD)=1.326, Vej=-41,70 m/s. There is a small chance for Draconid activity in the form of separate meteors with high share of fireballs. Theoretical radiant: RA=259.9°, Dec=+48.9°, v=18.9 km/s. 1980 07.10.1980 13:38 UT. The Earth encounters with 1913 trail intersecting the Earth's orbit on 26 September. Closer 1920 and 1926 on given parts are almost destroyed because of perturbations. Characteristics: fM(fMD)=0.487, Vej=30.60 m/s. Activity is very unlikely, even in radiorange. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.4°, Dec=+50.4°, v=19.2 km/s. 1981 09.10.1981 0:05 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1913 and 1920 trails. Characteristics: dT(1920)=0.285, Vej=93.26 m/s, fM(MD)=4.609. SL=195.877. A quite high dT parameter value and very high ejection velocity will result in almost complete absense of visual activity chances, as well as radioactivity. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.8°, Dec=+55.3°, v=20.9 km/s. 1985 08.10.1985 10:02 UT. Trails, encountered the Earth in 1946 (which produced the famous Draconids 1946 storm), developed a large holes because of that. 1940 trail is too perturbed, while computation of parameter 1933dT1946(1946) gives 0.32. This means that having non-perturbed 1940 trail, value of parameter 1940dT1946(1946) would be close to 0.5. But "vertical trails" approach shows chances for Draconid activity from 1946 trail, giving ZHRex about 200-300 meteors with low average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=263.0°, Dec=+55.7°, v=20.9 km/s. 1986 08.10.1980 9:16 UT. The Earth passes through channel of 19 century trails. The most close is 1845 trail. Because of low density only a very low activity is expected, with ZHR about 5-7 meteors, brightness above average. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.2°, Dec=+51.9°, v=19.6 km/s. 1991 08.10.1991 14:59-15:38 UT. The Earth passes through channel of 19 century trails. The most close are 1824, 1831 and 1866 trails, which will give activity. Their common action should result in ZHR about 25-30 meteors, perhaps with a number of submaximas. Brightness above average. Theoretical radiants: 1824 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+57.1°, v=21.3 km/s; 1831 trail: RA=263.4°, Dec=+56.9°, v=21.3 km/s; 1866 trail: RA=263.4°, Dec=+57.1°, v=21.3 km/s°.
1992 09.10.1992 11:23 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1953 and 1959 trails. Characteristics: dT(1953)=0.37, Vej=46.2 m/s. Unfavorable value of dT parameter practically excludes chances of activity. Small possibilities are only for radiorange, as ejection velocity is also very high. Theoretical radiant: RA=263.1°, Dec=+55.5°, v=20.9 km/s. 1994 08.10.1994 12:01 UT. The Earth passes through channel of 1900-1033 trail. This channel is characterized with plenty of local perturbations and holes, caused by past encounters with Earth. Because of this accurate calcualtion of encounter parameters is very difficult. The most close is 1926 trail. It has the following regular (without perturbation) characteristics: fM(fMD)=0.743, Vej=39,56 m/s. The most probable in visual range is absense of activity. In radiorange a small enhancement if possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.3°, Dec=+51.0°, v=19.4 km/s. 1995 08.10.1995 12:21 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1887 and 1894 trails. Characteristics: dT(1894)=0.445, Vej=47.89 m/s, fM(MD)=-0.524. SL=194.803. dT parameter value is close to 0.5. Other parameter also have unfavorable values - low density and quite high ejection velocity. So far meteor activity is not expected. Theoretical radiant: RA=260.7°, Dec=+47.9°, v=18.6 km/s. 1998 07.10.1998 7:05 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1933 and 1940 trails. Characteristics: dT(1940)=0.38513, Vej=-35.49 m/s, fM(MD)=0.229. SL=193.837. dT parameter value is quite high. Other parameter also have unfavorable values - low density and quite high ejection velocity. Meteor activity is possible only as separate (but bright) meteors. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.8°, Dec=+49.0°, v=18.6 km/s. 08.10.1998 13:27 UT. Direct encounter with 1926 trail. High density and very favorable ejection velocity will give a short but very strong outburst up to stormy level. ZHRex is about 1000 meteors. Brightness will be low. Theoretical radiant: RA=263.3°, Dec=+55.8°, v=20.9 km/s.
1999 09.10.1999 12:24 UT. Direct encounter with 1966 trail (for 1966 and 1972 trail dT parameter value is 0.056). High density, but unfavorable ejection velocity will give a possible small enhancement with ZHR about 5-10 meteors. Meteor brightness will be very low, in radiorange acitivity should be much stronger. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.5°, Dec=+55.3°, v=20.9 km/s. 2001 09.10.2001 4:46 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1913 and 1920 trails. Characteristics: dT(1913)=0.39564, Vej=69.266 m/s, fM(MD)=6.100. SL=195.944. dT parameter value is quite high. Other parameters are also not very favorable - very high density but also high ejection velocity. Activity perspectives are low, even for radiorange. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.1°, Dec=+55.4°, v=21.0 km/s. 2005 08.10.2005 16:48 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1946 and 1953 trails. Characteristics: dT(1913)=0.33, Vej=29.8 m/s, SL=195.44. dT parameter value is quite high. With high trail density and moderately favorable ejection velocity we can expect activity about 20 meteors on ZHR scale, in radiorange a much stronger activity is likely. Theoretical radiant: RA=263.1°, Dec=+55.6°, v=20.9 km/s. 2006 09.10.2006 4:43 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1966 and 1972 trails. Characteristics: dT(1972)=0.27, Vej=86.38 m/s, fM(MD)=3.151. SL=195.663. dT parameter value is moderately favorable. But very high ejection velocity practically excludes chances of visual activity. However, in radiorange an outburst is possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.3°, Dec=+55.5°, v=21.0 km/s. 2007 07.10.2007 4:36 UT. Encounter with channel of 1887-1913 trails. dT(1894) parameter value for 1894 and 1900 trail is almost exectly equal 0.5, so we won't describe conditions of encounter with non-perihelion particles. But these trails intersect the Earth's orbit very close to the period of Draconids activity, so we'll use "vertical trails" approach, described in a separate section of this general prediction. Around the mentioned maximum time 1900 trail can give activity with ZHR about 1-2 meteors. Meteors are predominantly faint, in radiorange a stronger activity is likely. Theoretical radiant: for 1900 trail: RA=261.1°, Dec=+47.6°, v=18.3 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=261.2°, Dec=+47.5°, v=18.3 km/s.
07.10.2007 21:06 UT. Anouther encouneter with channel of 1887-1913 trails, but this time the most close are 1887 and 1894 trail, according to "vertical trails" approach. Draconid activity should reach 2-3 meteors on ZHR scale, average meteor brightness is not very high, also is should decline during the proccess of activity. Theoretical radiant: for 1887 trail: RA=260.8°, Dec=+49.0°, v=18.8 km/s; for 1894 trail: RA=260.8°, Dec=+49.6°, v=19.0 km/s.
2008 07.10.2008 22:19 UT. Encounter with non-perihelion particles between 1920 and 1926 trails. Trails are strongly perturbed, so characteristics of non-perihelion particles are calculated only approximately - dT(1920)=0.15, Vej=89.00 км/с, fM(MD)=-0.812 (very approximately, can vary from -3 to 0.5), SL=194.893°. High ejection velocity excludes chances of any visual activity from those trails, radioactivity perspectives are also very doubtful. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.4°, Dec=+56.6°, v=21.4 km/s. 2009 06.10.2009 21:42 UT. The Earth passes close to 1913 trail, intersecting the Earth's orbit on 18 October. According to "vertical trails" approach, activity on the level of separate meteors with high share pf bright ones is possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.2°, Dec=+53.6°, v=18.3 km/s. 2010 08.10.2010 3:25 UT. The Earth passes close to 1887 trail, intersecting the Earth's orbit on 15 November. According to "vertical trails" approach, we expect ZHR about 1-2 meteors with high share pf bright ones is possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=263.3°, Dec=+56.2°, v=21.0 km/s.
2011 08.10.2011 20:42 UT. The Earth passes through channel of 1887-1926 trails. There are no very close encounters. Analysis of non-perihelion particles is also not persperctive, as dT parameters for different trails couples are close to 0.5. So the most useful here is "vertical trails" approach. It shows, that during several hours around given maximum time Draconids are expected to give activity. The first meteors should appear at 17 UT 8 October, their average brightness will be quite high. Then activity will rise along with declining of average brightness. Maximum intesity will be about 40-50 meteors on ZHR scale. Declining of activity will be more rapid that its growth. Perhaps to 23 UT it will virtually end. Also, during the declining branch average meteor brighness will continue to decrease. Theoretical radiants: for 1887 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+55.4°, v=20.7 km/s, for 1894 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+55.5°, v=20.8 km/s, for 1900 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+55.8°, v=20.9 km/s, for 1907 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+55.8°, v=20.9 km/s, for 1913 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+55.8°, v=20.9 km/s, for 1920 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+55.8°, v=20.9 km/s, for 1926 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+55.8°, v=20.9 km/s.
2012 08.10.2012 16:30 UT. The Earth passes near 1959 trail. But due to past encounter with the Earth it will be stretched to become approximately 55 times less than regular one. Also 1966 trail will come quite close. Parameters of non-perihelion particles for these trails are the following: dT(1959)=0.05, Vej=38.2 m/s. Quite high ejection velocity and low value of dT parameter allow at best to expect visual ZHR of 1-2 meteors (due to stretched 1959 trail). But in radiorange more sufficient activity is likely. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.7°, Dec=+55.8°, v=21.0 km/s. 2014 06.10.2014 20:10 UT. Encounter with channel of 1900-1913 trails. We use "vertical trails" approach as these trails intersect the Earth's orbit on 7-14 October. Around the maximum time a small enhancement with ZHR of 10-15 meteors with very low average brightness. In radiorange higher activity is likely. Theoretical radiant: for 1900 trail: RA=261.5°, Dec=+47.2°, v=18.2 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=261.4°, Dec=+47.5°, v=18.3 km/s; for 1913 trail: RA=261.6°, Dec=+47.5°, v=18.3 km/s.
2018 08.10.2018 23:15 UT, 08.10.2018 23:56 UT. At the first sight a very favorable return of the 21P comet won't give a strong outburst of activity, as the Earht will pass through the area of strongly rarified and perturbed material within the channel of 1946-1959 trails. We have no close direct encounters, but both "vertical trails" approach and analysis of non-perihelion particles are usable here. Out of two given moments of maximum the first is obtained from the first approach. It shows maximum activity of about 5 meteors on ZHR scale. In the second approach we have the following parameters: dT(1953)=0.28, Vej=9.8 m/s. Considering low density of the trails, we expect maximum activity of 10-20 meteors on ZHR scale. So far, we can conclude that in the period 23-0 UT 8-9 October maximum Draconid activity will be about 10-20 meteors on ZHR scale. Theoretical radiants: for 1946 trail: RA=262.9°, Dec=+56.0°, v=21.0 km/s; for 1953 trail. RA=262.8°, Dec=+56.0°, v=21.0 km/s.
2019 08.10.2019 14:45 UT. Very close encounter with 1959 trail. Its characteristics: Vej=62.9 m/s, fM(fMD)=2.377, SL=194.759°. Taking as a basis Draconids activity in 1999, we can expect a small visual peak not higher than 5-10 meteors on ZHR scale. In radiorange much higher activity is likely. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.4°, Dec=+53.9°, v=20.5 km/s. 2023 08.10.2023 12:10 UT. Enconter with 1887 trail. We use "vertical trails" approach, as this trail crosses the Earth's orbit on 12 October. A sufficient activity enhancement is likely, up to 10-20 meteors on ZHR scale with high share of fireballs. Theoretical radiant: RA=263.4°, Dec=+56.3°, v=21.0 km/s.
2025 08.10.2025 5-11 UT. Encounter with channel of 1907-1953 trails, intersicting the Earth's orbit at the end of September. According to "vertical trails" approach, significant activity enhancenments with lots of submaximas are likely. Suggested time and intensity if these submaximas are the following: 5:01 UT - 10-15 meteors on ZHR scale, 7:25 UT - 20-25 meteors on ZHR scale, 9:06 UT - 20-25 meteors on ZHR scale, 10:17-10:49 UT - 50-60 meteors on ZHR scale. So far, we expect a waved increase of activity, and the first meteors can already appear at 1:20 UT. Meteor brightness will be quite high, lots of fireballs are likely. We also would like to note that due to high density of trails channel and experimental character of the used "vertical trails" approach", ZHR estimates given before are quite optimistic and real activity can be much lower. Theoretical radiants: for 1907 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+55.1°, v=20.7 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.1°, Dec=+55.0°, v=20.7 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.0°, Dec=+54.9°, v=20.7 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=261.9°, Dec=+54.8°, v=20.6 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=261.8°, Dec=+54.6°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=261.7°, Dec=+54.2°, v=20.4 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=261.6°, Dec=+53.7°, v=20.2 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=261.3°, Dec=+52.8°, v=19.9 km/s.
08.10.2025 15:14 UT. Almost direct encounter with 2 rev. 2012 trail. We used approaches with analysis of non-perihelion particles and "vertical trails". For the first approach parameters are the following: dT(2012)=0.10, Vej=88.3 m/s. So far, because of very high ejection velocity we expect visual activity on the level of only 10-40 meteors on ZHR scale, average brightness very low. However in radiorange a much higher activity is likely, up to very strong storm with tens of thousands meteors per hour. Vertical trails approach gives visual ZHR=4 meteors. Considering these results, on visual level we expect a very short enhancement with ZHRmax of 10-30 meteors. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.8°, Dec=+55.9°, v=21.1 km/s.
2030 08.10.2030 21-22 UT. Direct encounter with a quite rarified channel of 1817-1859 trails. Activity should rise to 10-20 meteors on ZHR scale, perhaps with lots of submaximas. Meteor brightness will be high, with lots of fireballs. Theoretical radiant: for 1817 trail: RA=263.4°, Dec=+58.0°, v=21.7 km/s; for 1817 trail: RA=263.5°, Dec=+58.1°, v=21.7 km/s; for 1817 trail: RA=263.5°, Dec=+58.0°, v=21.7 km/s; for 1817 trail: RA=263.5°, Dec=+58.1°, v=21.7 km/s; for 1817 trail: RA=263.5°, Dec=+58.1°, v=21.7 km/s; for 1817 trail: RA=263.5°, Dec=+58.2°, v=21.8 km/s.
2031 06.10.2031 13:23 UT. Encounter with a channel of 1907-1940 trails. Little activity is expected only from 1933 trail (direct encouter). ZHR will rise to 2-3 meteors with high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=260.9°, Dec=+49.3°, v=18.7 km/s.
08.10.2031 4:38 UT. The Earth encounters with vertical 1946 trail, intersecting the Earth orbit on 2 September. A traces of activity are likely at the mentioned maximum time with ZHRmax<1 meteor. Brightness will be low, in radiorange several times stronger activity is expected. Also, the Earth encounters non-perihelion particles between 1946 and 1953 trail. Charachteristics: dT(1946)=0.32447, Vej=29.469 m/s, fM(MD)=-3.739. SL=194.330 (08.10.2031 6:09 UT). Calculations show that vusual ZHR will be less than 1 meteor, but in radiorange activity on the level of several meteors per hour is likely. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.6°, Dec=+54.7°, v=20.7 km/s.
2032 07.10.2032 4:57 UT. Encounter with vertical 2005 trail, it intersects the Earth's orbit on 25 September. Vertical trails approach gives visual ZHR<1 meteors. So far we expect visual activity on the level of separate meteors. Brightness will be very low, in radiorange much higher activity is likely. Theoretical radiant: RA=263.7°, Dec=+56.7°, v=21.3 km/s.
2036 07-08.10.2036 23-05 UT. The Earth will pass through non-perihelion particles between 1880 and 1887 trails. Characteristics: dT(1880)=0.4022, Vej=-18.710 м/с, fM(MD)=0.349. SL=194.892 (08.10.2036 2:35 UT). dT parameter value is close to 0.5, so activity from non-perihelion particles is not expected. However, for both trails "vertical trails" approach gives ZHRex~1 meteor. So far we expect Draconid activity on the level of separate meteors with high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: for 1880 trail: RA=263.5°, Dec=+57.6°, v=21.5 km/s; for 1887 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+57.6°, v=21.3 km/s.
2038 07.10.2038 0-4 UT. The Earth passes through channel of 1907-1940 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in the first half of the September. Weak Draconid activity with ZHR up to 5 meteors is likely, the most intensive it should be during the period 3-4 UT, a number of submaximas is likely. Meteor brightness will be high. Theoretical radiant: for 1907 trail: RA=262.5°, Dec=+55.2°, v=20.6 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.4°, Dec=+55.1°, v=20.6 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.3°, Dec=+55.0°, v=20.6 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.2°, Dec=+54.8°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=262.1°, Dec=+54.6°, v=20.4 km/s.
07-08.10.2038 16-2 UT. The Earth encounters with a channel of 1959-1979 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in the first half of September, also it passes throught non-perihelion particles between 1972 and 1979 trails. We used approaches with the use of non-perihelion particles and "vertical trails". For the first approach characteristics are the following: dT(1972)=0.3058, Vej=31.9 m/s, fM(MD)=-42.565. SL=194.048 (07.10.2038 18:22 UT). This approach gives ZHR about 3 meteors. However, the second approach shows the maximum ZHR of 20-30 meteor at 19 UT 7 October. During the rest of time period given before a number of submaximas with ZHR no more than 5 meteors is likely. Meteor brightness will be low, during this period it should slightly increase. In radiorande much higher activity is expected. Theoretical radiant: for 1959 trail: RA=262.5°, Dec=+57.0°, v=21.4 km/s; for 1959 trail: RA=262.5°, Dec=+56.9°, v=21.4 km/s; for 1959 trail: RA=262.7°, Dec=+56.9°, v=21.4 km/s; for 1959 trail: RA=263.0°, Dec=+57.0°, v=21.4 km/s.
2040 07.10.2040 23:29 UT. Direct encounter with 1959 trail. Ejection velocity is 95.8 m/s, so, despite high density, we don't expect visual activity, at best it could occur as separate meteors with very low average brightness. However, there is quite high possibility of radioenhancement. Theoretical radiant: RA=263.2°, Dec=+56.7°, v=21.4 km/s. 2044 06.10.2044 2-3 UT. Encounter with channel of 1900-1926 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit on 17-23 September. We expect activity with ZHRmax=1-2 meteors, brightness average. Theoretical radiant: for 1920 trail: RA=262.9°, Dec=+53.0°, v=19.8 km/s; for 1920 trail: RA=263.0°, Dec=+53.1°, v=19.9 km/s.
2046 06.10.2046 0-1 UT. Encounter with 1894 trail, intersecting the Earth orbit on 25 September and 18 October. Vertical trails approach gives ZHRmax=1-2 meteors with high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.3°, Dec=+48.0°, v=18.2 km/s.
2050 06.10.2050 17:03 UT. Encounter with 1894 trail, intersecting the Earth's orbit on 13 October. Vertical trails approach gives ZHRmax=4-5 meteors with low average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=263.0°, Dec=+53.4°, v=20.0 km/s.
2053 05.10.2053 22:16 UT. Encounter with 1894 trail, intersecting the Earth's orbit on 20 September. Vertical trails approach shows activity on the level of separate meteors with high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.3°, Dec=+47.2°, v=18.1 km/s. 2057 05.10.2057 23:59 UT. Encounter with challel of 1998-2018 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September-November. Vertical trails approach gives ZHRmax=2-3 meteors with high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.6°, Dec=+51.7°, v=19.4 km/s.
2058 07.10.2058 12:24 UT. Encounter with 1985 trail, intersecting the Earth's orbit on 11 October. Vertical trails approach gives ZHRmax=1-2 meteors with very low average brightness. In radiorange much higher activity is likely. Theoretical radiant: RA=264.1°, Dec=+56.8°, v=21.2 km/s.
2062 06.10.2062 8:05 UT. Encounter with challel of 1966-1992 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in August-October, also we found a direct encounter with 1979 trail. Vertical trails approach gives ZHRmax up to 500-600 meteors with very high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: for 1966 trail: RA=264.0°, Dec=+56.3°, v=20.9 km/s; for 1972 trail: RA=264.0°, Dec=+56.6°, v=21.0 km/s; for 1979 trail: RA=263.7°, Dec=+56.6°, v=21.0 km/s; for 1985 trail: RA=263.5°, Dec=+56.5°, v=21.0 km/s; for 1992 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+56.4°, v=21.0 km/s.
2064 06.10.2064 5:41 UT. Encounter with challel of 1907-1933 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September-October, also we found a direct encounter with 1907 trail. Vertical trails approach gives ZHRmax up to 200-300 meteors with very high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: for 1907 trail: RA=263.8°, Dec=+54.3°, v=20.2 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=263.6°, Dec=+54.3°, v=21.2 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=263.5°, Dec=+54.1°, v=20.2 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=263.5°, Dec=+53.9°, v=20.1 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+53.7°, v=20.0 km/s.
2066 06.10.2066 13:50 UT. Direct encouneter with 2031 trail. Vertical trails approach shows on visual activity on the level of separate meteors with ZHR up to 1. Brightness will be very low. Also a much stronger outburst is likely in radiorange. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.2°, Dec=+55.0°, v=20.8 km/s.
2069 06.10.2069 2-6 UT. Encounter with challel of 1900-1913 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September. Vertical trails approach gives ZHRmax=5-10 meteors with very low average brightness. Much higher activity is likely in radiorange. Theoretical radiants: for 1900 trail: RA=263.8°, Dec=+55.2°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1907 trail: RA=263.8°, Dec=+55.6°, v=20.5 km/s; for 1913 trail: RA=264.0°, Dec=+56.0°, v=20.8 km/s, RA=263.3°, Dec=+53.9°, v=20.2 km/s.
2078 04-05.10.2078. Encounter with challel of 1959-2005 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in the end of October. Vertical trails approach gives a number of weak maximas with ZHR up to 10-20 meteors with high average brightness. The most strong activity is expected aroud 20 UT 4 October (up to 10-20 meteors on ZHR scale) and around 22 UT 5 October (up to 5-10 meteors on ZHR scale). Between these two peaks we expect weak activity with ZHR not higher than 3-5 meteors. Theoretical radiants: for 1959 trail: RA=260.7°, Dec=+45.6°, v=17.6 km/s; for 1966 trail: RA=261.0°, Dec=+48.4°, v=18.4 km/s; for 1972 trail: RA=261.1°, Dec=+48.8°, v=18.6 km/s; for 1979 trail: RA=260.9°, Dec=+48.8°, v=18.6 km/s; for 1985 trail: RA=260.9°, Dec=+48.8°, v=18.6 km/s; for 1992 trail: RA=260.9°, Dec=+49.0°, v=18.6 km/s; for 1998 trail: RA=260.9°, Dec=+49.0°, v=18.7 km/s; for 2005 trail: RA=260.9°, Dec=+49.1°, v=18.7 km/s.
06.10.2078 5:32 UT. Encounter with challel of 1926-2018 trails and 2058 trail, intersecting the Earth's orbit on 2-3 November. Vertical trails approach gives a maximum of 2-3 meteors on ZHR scale with very high average brightness. Theoretical radiants: for 1933 trail: RA=261.1°, Dec=+50.2°, v=19.0 km/s; for 1940 trail: RA=261.1°, Dec=+50.7°, v=19.2 km/s; for 2012 trail: RA=261.0°, Dec=+50.5°, v=19.1 km/s; for 2018 trail: RA=261.1°, Dec=+50.8°, v=19.2 km/s.
07.10.2078 11-12 UT. Encounter with challel of 2031-2058 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit on 3-14 August. Vertical trails approach gives a maximum of 2-3 meteors on ZHR scale with very high average brightness. Theoretical radiants: for 2031 trail: RA=262.5°, Dec=+55.7°, v=20.8 km/s; for 2031 trail: RA=262.4°, Dec=+55.7°, v=20.8 km/s; for 2031 trail: RA=262.4°, Dec=+55.8°, v=20.9 km/s.
07.10.2078 23:41 UT. Encounter with challel of 1873-1887 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September-November. Vertical trails approach gives a maximum of 30-40 meteors on ZHR scale with very high average brightness. Theoretical radiants: for 1873 trail: RA=263.0°, Dec=+58.0°, v=21.7 km/s; for 1873 trail: RA=262.7°, Dec=+58.1°, v=21.8 km/s, RA=263.2°, Dec=+58.0°, v=21.7 km/s.
2081 05.10.2081 10:41 UT. Encounter with challel of 1998-2005 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September-November. Vertical trails approach shows activity on the level of separate meteors with high average brightness. Theoretical radiants: for 1998 trail: RA=263.7°, Dec=+55.8°, v=20.7 km/s; for 2005 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+55.0°, v=20.4 km/s.
2084 06.10.2084 20:27 UT. Encounter with challel of 1907-1933 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September. Vertical trails approach gives a maximum of 10-20 meteors on ZHR scale with high average brightness. Theoretical radiants: for 1913 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+56.0°, v=20.9 km/s; for 1913 trail: RA=263.1°, Dec=+55.9°, v=20.9 km/s; for 1913 trail: RA=263.0°, Dec=+55.8°, v=20.8 km/s, RA=263.0°, Dec=+56.2°, v=21.0 km/s.
2094 06.10.2094 0:32 UT. Encounter with 1992 and 1998 trails, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September. Vertical trails approach gives a maximum on the level of separate meteors with high average brightness. Theoretical radiants: for 1992 trail RA=263.2°, Dec=+56.0°, v=20.9 km/s; for 1998 trail: RA=263.1°, Dec=+55.9°, v=20.9 km/s.
2095 07.10.2095 2:46 UT. Direct encounter with 1907 trail. We expect activity on the level of separate meteors with quite low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=264.2°, Dec=+57.0°, v=21.2 km/s. 2097 05.10.2097 8:08 UT. Encounter with 2025 trail, intersecting the Earth's orbit on 20 December. Vertical trails approach gives a maximum of 2-3 meteors on ZHR scale with high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=262.8°, Dec=+55.0°, v=20.5 km/s.
05.10.2097 8:08 UT. Encounter with a number of trails from 1913-2065 interval, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September-December. Vertical trails approach gives a maximum of 50-60 meteors on ZHR scale with high average brightness. Theoretical radiants: for 1920 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+56.7°, v=21.1 km/s; for 1926 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+56.7°, v=21.1 km/s; for 1933 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+56.6°, v=21.1 km/s, RA=263.2°, Dec=+56.7°, v=21.1 km/s, RA=263.3°, Dec=+56.6°, v=21.0 km/s; for 1940 trail: RA=263.0°, Dec=+56.4°, v=21.0 km/s; for 2031 trail: RA=263.1°, Dec=+55.9°, v=20.8 km/s; for 2038 trail: RA=263.1°, Dec=+55.9°, v=20.8 km/s; for 2045 trail: RA=263.0°, Dec=+56.0°, v=20.8 km/s; for 2051 trail: RA=262.9°, Dec=+56.0°, v=20.8 km/s; for 2058 trail: RA=262.8°, Dec=+56.1°, v=20.9 km/s; for 2065 trail: RA=262.6°, Dec=+56.2°, v=20.9 km/s.
2098 05.10.2098 4:20 UT. Encounter with a number of trail from 2018-2072 interval, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September-November. Vertical trails approach gives a stormy maximum of 1500-2000 meteors on ZHR scale with high average brightness, but we don't exclude much stronger activity, with ZHR up to 10000-20000 meteors. Due to high average brightness we expect very intensive fireball activity. Theoretical radiants: for 2018 trail: RA=263.0°, Dec=+51.1°, v=19.1 km/s; for 2025 trail: RA=263.1°, Dec=+51.9°, v=19.4 km/s; for 2031 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+52.1°, v=19.4 km/s; for 2038 trail: RA=263.1°, Dec=+52.0°, v=19.4 km/s; for 2045 trail: RA=263.1°, Dec=+52.0°, v=19.4 km/s; for 2051 trail: RA=263.1°, Dec=+52.0°, v=19.4 km/s; for 2058 trail: RA=263.1°, Dec=+51.9°, v=19.4 km/s; for 2065 trail: RA=263.0°, Dec=+51.9°, v=19.4 km/s; for 2072 trail: RA=262.9°, Dec=+51.7°, v=19.3 km/s.
05.10.2098 7:17 UT. Encounter with a number of trail from 1959-2005 interval, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September-November. Vertical trails approach gives a potentially stormy maximum of 500 meteors on ZHR scale with very high average brightness, but we don't exclude much stronger activity, with ZHR up to 5000 meteors. Due to very high average brightness we expect very intensive fireball activity. Theoretical radiants: for 1966 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+52.4°, v=19.5 km/s; for 1972 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+52.4°, v=19.5 km/s; for 1979 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+52.4°, v=19.6 km/s; for 1985 trail: RA=263.3°, Dec=+52.5°, v=19.6 km/s; for 1992 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+52.5°, v=19.6 km/s; for 1998 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+52.5°, v=19.6 km/s; for 2005 trail: RA=263.2°, Dec=+52.6°, v=19.6 km/s, RA=263.3°, Dec=+52.8°, v=19.7 km/s, RA=263.3°, Dec=+53.0°, v=19.7 km/s, RA=263.3°, Dec=+53.0°, v=19.7 km/s.
05.10.2098 15:20 UT. Encounter with 1998 trail, intersecting the Earth's orbit om 5 October. Vertical trails approach gives a potentially stormy maximum of 100-200 meteors on ZHR scale with very low average brightness. Theoretical radiants: RA=263.6°, Dec=+53.7°, v=20.0 km/s.
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