Finlayids 1901-2100
Conclusion Meteor activity of the comet 15P, according to the accomplished computations, occurs from time to time within all the duration of 20 and 21 centuries. However, frequency and intensity of its outbursts are variable. In the first half of the 20 century the distance between the comet and the Earth orbits lays in the interval from appr. 0.02 to 0.08 AU. We found four cases of activity, but they all have very low intensity, up to 5 meteors at best. The outbursts occur and the autumm node of the stream orbit, thouth the dates of peaks differ significantly due to the low inclination of the stream orbit. In the second half of the 20 century the comet will pass away from the Earth orbit to the distance 0.05-0.11 AU The stream activity will continue to be weak and rare. We found only two cases with maximum intensity up to 10-15 meteors on ZHR scale, and one of the occuring on the July node of the comet's orbit. In the first half of the 21 century the comet's orbit will come closer to the Earth's one, from 0.05 AU at 2002 perihelion to almost zero distance, less than 0.01 AU at 2014, 2021, 2028, 2034, 2041 and 2047 perihelia. Respectively, around 15P perihalia sifnificant activity outbursts are expected. The most strong one should occur in 2021 (optimistic prediction - up to 500 meteors on ZHR scale, 2027 (40 meteors), 2034 (up to 100 meteors) and 2047 (up to 4000 meteors. In the second half of the 21 century the distanse between the orbits of the comet 15P and the Earth will increase a little, to the values of 0.03-0.07 AU, exclusing 2067 and 2073 perihelia, when it will again become less than 0.01 AU. Respectively, the stream activity will decrease. Still, around the most of perihelia moderate activity is expected. The most prominent should be the year 2066 with two outbursts up to 15 and 40 meteors on ZHR scale. Also notable activity (up to 10 meteors on ZHR scale) is likely in 2060. |