Finlayids 1901-2100

Computation characteristics
We'd like to present the results of Finlayid meteor stream simulation aimed to the prediction of shower activity in the years 1901-2100. Simulation was made for the trails of latest 28 revolutions, i.e, from the 1807 trail, as well as evolution of the next 17 trails to be ejected in the future, up to 2093 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model described in [3] was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to turn the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the Finlayids. The computation considered only gravitational forces. The following parts of trails were computed: the first 15 rev. trails for ejection velocities [-50;100] m/s, 16-30 rev. trails - [-30;50] m/s, 31-50 rev. trails - [-20;30] m/s.
Finlayid predictions are given as short conclusions for the years for which possible activity enhancements are found.

Orbit of the comet 15P in 1901-2100
The Author used initial orbital elements of 15P, starting from the perihelion of 1807 and up to 2100 one, presented by Kazuo Kinoshita [2]. Orbital elements of 15P in the period 1901-2100, as well as values of minimal distances to the Earth orbit for these elements and relative solar longitudes are given in Table A2.
                                                                   Table А2
time of perih.	     q       e      AOP      LAN      i       МD.      SL.     Time of MD passage
       -             AU       -      °        °       °       AU      °              -

1906.9.8.4461	  0.96469 0.72413 315.9523  53.5128  3.0565  0.01943 212.7986  25.09.1906 21:55
1913.2.6.6722	  1.01049 0.71498 318.2276  47.9608  3.4008  0.03635 195.9855  14.02.1913 9:03
1919.10.15.4229	  1.01256 0.71470 318.2822  47.9043  3.3993  0.03736 195.3681  22.10.1919 15:51
1926.8.7.2627	  1.06098 0.70568 320.7712  46.1785  3.4341  0.07099 188.8103  08.08.1926 19:12
1933.6.16.0802	  1.06817 0.70444 320.7555  46.2054  3.4296  0.07723 188.4321  17.06.1933 7:11
1940.4.25.3561	  1.06235 0.70548 320.8397  46.1554  3.4349  0.07216 188.7769  26.04.1940 19:54
1947.2.26.8889	  1.05646 0.70651 320.9602  46.1601  3.4394  0.06714 189.2663  28.02.1947 15:46
1953.12.25.5319	  1.04881 0.70799 321.1395  46.0259  3.4447  0.06076 189.9009  27.12.1953 18:32
1960.8.31.8432	  1.07720 0.70248 321.6812  42.6825  3.6490  0.08534 185.8673  02.09.1960 2:26
1967.7.28.0709	  1.08036 0.70200 321.7523  42.6260  3.6463  0.08814 185.7439  29.07.1967 5:09
1974.7.3.8794	  1.09588 0.69919 322.1959  42.4100  3.6500  0.10224 185.4529  04.07.1974 14:03
1981.6.19.9953	  1.10093 0.69843 322.1984  42.4312  3.6472  0.10693 185.3420  20.06.1981 14:03
1988.6.6.0974	  1.09439 0.69947 322.2743  42.3701  3.6520  0.10085 185.5341  06.06.1988 20:10
1995.5.5.0418	  1.03556 0.71031 323.5402  42.0480  3.6739  0.05015 190.3303  08.05.1995 21:05
2002.2.7.1227	  1.03411 0.71051 323.6358  41.9697  3.6748  0.04902 190.5542  11.02.2002 2:54
2008.6.22.4430	  0.97004 0.72135 347.4457  13.8577  6.8086 -0.01344 198.8916  05.07.2008 15:18
2014.12.26.8902   0.97596 0.72017 347.5159  13.8235  6.7907 -0.00965 197.3160  07.01.2015 22:56
2021.7.13.3411	  0.99208 0.71702 347.7876  13.7598  6.7892  0.00155 193.2731  22.07.2021 8:41
2028.2.9.8093	  0.99867 0.71583 347.8051  13.7673  6.7745  0.00666 191.8041  17.02.2028 17:49
2034.9.8.3975	  0.99520 0.71639 347.8325  13.7631  6.7850  0.00390 192.5724  16.09.2034 20:58
2041.4.3.6840	  0.99411 0.71661 347.8808  13.7762  6.7839  0.00300 192.8519  12.04.2041 7:36
2047.10.26.2021	  0.98811 0.71773 347.9391  13.7282  6.7959 -0.00162 194.2545  04.11.2047 20:10
2054.5.2.9885	  0.94711 0.72589 348.8256  13.4304  6.7438 -0.02882 205.5137  19.05.2054 23:56
2060.10.4.2737	  0.94424 0.72650 348.9132  13.3618  6.7486 -0.03049 206.2614  21.10.2060 18:17
2067.1.18.2393	  0.97646 0.72040 346.4697  12.6171  5.9199 -0.00747 195.9553  30.01.2067 23:56
2073.8.2.7639	  0.97960 0.71973 346.5609  12.5637  5.9084 -0.00567 195.0568  14.08.2073 20:31
2080.5.4.9947	  1.06492 0.70341 350.2614  10.2258  6.1866  0.06420 182.0661  06.05.2080 7:16
2087.3.1.0564	  1.07194 0.70222 350.2930  10.2192  6.1726  0.07101 181.8243  02.03.2087 3:32
2093.12.25.0713	  1.06880 0.70278 350.3072  10.2288  6.1807  0.06796 181.9559  26.12.2093 6:00
2100.10.19.9028	  1.06592 0.70346 350.3998  10.2401  6.1776  0.06514 182.1311  21.10.2100 3:19
Orbital elements are given for the Epoch J2000. The following of them are denoted with symbols: q - perihelion distance; e - eccentricity; AOP - argument of perihelion; LAN - longitude of ascending node; i - inclination. MD - minimal distance to the Earth's orbit, SL - solar longitude of MD-point. Positive value of minimal distance means that point of such minimum lies outside the Earth orbit, and negative value means that this point is inside the Earth orbit.