Finlayids 1901-2100
Computation characteristics We'd like to present the results of Finlayid meteor stream simulation aimed to the prediction of shower activity in the years 1901-2100. Simulation was made for the trails of latest 28 revolutions, i.e, from the 1807 trail, as well as evolution of the next 17 trails to be ejected in the future, up to 2093 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model described in [3] was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to turn the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the Finlayids. The computation considered only gravitational forces. The following parts of trails were computed: the first 15 rev. trails for ejection velocities [-50;100] m/s, 16-30 rev. trails - [-30;50] m/s, 31-50 rev. trails - [-20;30] m/s. Finlayid predictions are given as short conclusions for the years for which possible activity enhancements are found. Orbit of the comet 15P in 1901-2100 The Author used initial orbital elements of 15P, starting from the perihelion of 1807 and up to 2100 one, presented by Kazuo Kinoshita [2]. Orbital elements of 15P in the period 1901-2100, as well as values of minimal distances to the Earth orbit for these elements and relative solar longitudes are given in Table A2. Table А2 time of perih. q e AOP LAN i МD. SL. Time of MD passage - AU - ° ° ° AU ° - 1906.9.8.4461 0.96469 0.72413 315.9523 53.5128 3.0565 0.01943 212.7986 25.09.1906 21:55 1913.2.6.6722 1.01049 0.71498 318.2276 47.9608 3.4008 0.03635 195.9855 14.02.1913 9:03 1919.10.15.4229 1.01256 0.71470 318.2822 47.9043 3.3993 0.03736 195.3681 22.10.1919 15:51 1926.8.7.2627 1.06098 0.70568 320.7712 46.1785 3.4341 0.07099 188.8103 08.08.1926 19:12 1933.6.16.0802 1.06817 0.70444 320.7555 46.2054 3.4296 0.07723 188.4321 17.06.1933 7:11 1940.4.25.3561 1.06235 0.70548 320.8397 46.1554 3.4349 0.07216 188.7769 26.04.1940 19:54 1947.2.26.8889 1.05646 0.70651 320.9602 46.1601 3.4394 0.06714 189.2663 28.02.1947 15:46 1953.12.25.5319 1.04881 0.70799 321.1395 46.0259 3.4447 0.06076 189.9009 27.12.1953 18:32 1960.8.31.8432 1.07720 0.70248 321.6812 42.6825 3.6490 0.08534 185.8673 02.09.1960 2:26 1967.7.28.0709 1.08036 0.70200 321.7523 42.6260 3.6463 0.08814 185.7439 29.07.1967 5:09 1974.7.3.8794 1.09588 0.69919 322.1959 42.4100 3.6500 0.10224 185.4529 04.07.1974 14:03 1981.6.19.9953 1.10093 0.69843 322.1984 42.4312 3.6472 0.10693 185.3420 20.06.1981 14:03 1988.6.6.0974 1.09439 0.69947 322.2743 42.3701 3.6520 0.10085 185.5341 06.06.1988 20:10 1995.5.5.0418 1.03556 0.71031 323.5402 42.0480 3.6739 0.05015 190.3303 08.05.1995 21:05 2002.2.7.1227 1.03411 0.71051 323.6358 41.9697 3.6748 0.04902 190.5542 11.02.2002 2:54 2008.6.22.4430 0.97004 0.72135 347.4457 13.8577 6.8086 -0.01344 198.8916 05.07.2008 15:18 2014.12.26.8902 0.97596 0.72017 347.5159 13.8235 6.7907 -0.00965 197.3160 07.01.2015 22:56 2021.7.13.3411 0.99208 0.71702 347.7876 13.7598 6.7892 0.00155 193.2731 22.07.2021 8:41 2028.2.9.8093 0.99867 0.71583 347.8051 13.7673 6.7745 0.00666 191.8041 17.02.2028 17:49 2034.9.8.3975 0.99520 0.71639 347.8325 13.7631 6.7850 0.00390 192.5724 16.09.2034 20:58 2041.4.3.6840 0.99411 0.71661 347.8808 13.7762 6.7839 0.00300 192.8519 12.04.2041 7:36 2047.10.26.2021 0.98811 0.71773 347.9391 13.7282 6.7959 -0.00162 194.2545 04.11.2047 20:10 2054.5.2.9885 0.94711 0.72589 348.8256 13.4304 6.7438 -0.02882 205.5137 19.05.2054 23:56 2060.10.4.2737 0.94424 0.72650 348.9132 13.3618 6.7486 -0.03049 206.2614 21.10.2060 18:17 2067.1.18.2393 0.97646 0.72040 346.4697 12.6171 5.9199 -0.00747 195.9553 30.01.2067 23:56 2073.8.2.7639 0.97960 0.71973 346.5609 12.5637 5.9084 -0.00567 195.0568 14.08.2073 20:31 2080.5.4.9947 1.06492 0.70341 350.2614 10.2258 6.1866 0.06420 182.0661 06.05.2080 7:16 2087.3.1.0564 1.07194 0.70222 350.2930 10.2192 6.1726 0.07101 181.8243 02.03.2087 3:32 2093.12.25.0713 1.06880 0.70278 350.3072 10.2288 6.1807 0.06796 181.9559 26.12.2093 6:00 2100.10.19.9028 1.06592 0.70346 350.3998 10.2401 6.1776 0.06514 182.1311 21.10.2100 3:19Orbital elements are given for the Epoch J2000. The following of them are denoted with symbols: q - perihelion distance; e - eccentricity; AOP - argument of perihelion; LAN - longitude of ascending node; i - inclination. MD - minimal distance to the Earth's orbit, SL - solar longitude of MD-point. Positive value of minimal distance means that point of such minimum lies outside the Earth orbit, and negative value means that this point is inside the Earth orbit. |