Finlayids 1901-2100: activity predictions

cases of predicted activity
yearday, timeZHRexcomments
-UTmeteors-
190621.11 13:495high meteor brightness
191303.11 18:002-3very faint meteors
191907.11 8:20<1separate faint meteors
195929.10 13:0310-15bright meteors
196511.07 10:5110faint meteors
202127.09 13:58-16:225-20, up to 100faint meteors
29.09 2:30-4:1750-120, up to 500faint meteors
07.10 1:195, up to 50very faint meteors
202723.10 22:245, up to 30-40faint meteors
202806.10 20:57up to 5very faint meteors
203404.10 14:145-10, up to 100average meteor brightness
204019.10 1:155-20average meteor brightness
204701.10 2:2215-20, up to 400bright meteors
07.10 20:4970-100, up to 4000bright meteors
205307.10 6:23<1bright meteors
205526.09 6:31<1bright meteors
206022.07 16:315-10bright meteors
206118.09 11:131-2very faint meteors
206627.07 8:1710-15bright meteors
11.10 9:4130-40bright meteors
207812.10 8:331-2bright meteors


1906
21.11.1906 13:49 UT. Direct encounter with 1807 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of ~5 meteors with high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.9°, Dec=-29.9°, v=15.9 km/s.

1913
03.11.1913 18:00 UT. Direct encounter with 1893 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 2-3 meteors with very low average brightness, in radiorange higher activity is possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=257.0°, Dec=-33.3°, v=13.2 km/s.

1919
07.11.1919 8:20 UT. Direct encounter with 1860 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax on the level of separate meteors with very low average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=258.0°, Dec=-32.7°, v=13.7 km/s.

1959
29.10.1959 13:03 UT. Direct encounter with 1807 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 10-15 meteors with quite high average brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.4°, Dec=-36.9°, v=11.7 km/s.

1965
11.07.1965 10:51 UT. Encounter with 1867 trail. "Vertical trails" approach shows activity with ZHR up to 10 meteors with low average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=289.3°, Dec=-20.8°, v=23.7 km/s.

2021
27.09.2021 13:58-16:22 UT. Direct and vertical encounter with 1988 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 5-20 meteors (it is the conservative variant, in optimistic case an outburst up to 100 meteors on ZHR scale is possible) with low average brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.1°, Dec=-60.5°, v=11.0 km/s.

29.09.2021 2:30-4:17 UT. Direct and vertical encounter with 1995 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 50-120 meteors (it is the conservative variant, in optimistic case an outburst up to 500 meteors on ZHR scale is possible) with low average brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=261.6°, Dec=-57.7°, v=10.8 km/s.

07.10.2021 1:19 UT. Direct encounter with 2014 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax up to 5 meteors (it is the conservative variant, in optimistic case an outburst up to 50 meteors on ZHR scale is possible) with very low average brigntness, in radiorange much higher activity is likely. Theoretical radiant: RA=255.8°, Dec=-48.3°, v=10.7 km/s.

2027
23.10.2027 22:24 UT. Vertical encounter with 1967 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax up to 5 meteors (it is the conservative variant, in optimistic case an outburst up to 30-40 meteors on ZHR scale is possible) with low average brigntness. Also some Finlayid activity can persist on the whole 23 and in the first half of 24 October. Theoretical radiant: RA=256.5°, Dec=-37.7°, v=11.6 km/s.

2028
06.10.2028 20:57 UT. Direct encounter with 2008 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax up to 5 meteors with very low average brigntness, in radiorange much higher activity is likely. Theoretical radiant: RA=255.7°, Dec=-48.2°, v=10.7 km/s.

2034
04.10.2034 14:14 UT UT. Direct and vertical encounter with 1995 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 5-10 meteors (it is the conservative variant, in optimistic case an outburst up to 100 meteors on ZHR scale is possible) with average brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=257.3°, Dec=-51.6°, v=10.7 km/s.

2040
19.10.2040 1:15 UT. Vertical encounter with 1886 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax up to 5-20 meteors, also on the whole 18 October some activity from 1873 and 1880 trails is possible, expected average meteor brightness is average. Theoretical radiant: RA=254.9°, Dec=-40.5°, v=11.4 km/s.

2047
01.10.2047 2:22 UT. Vertical encounter with 1926 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax up to 15-20 meteors (it is the conservative variant, in optimistic case an outburst up to 300-400 meteors on ZHR scale is possible) with high average brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=260.4°, Dec=-56.6°, v=10.8 km/s.

07.10.2047 20:49 UT. Direct encounter with 2008 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 70-100 meteors (it is the conservative variant, in optimistic case an outburst up to 4000 meteors on ZHR scale is possible) with average brigntness. Also, due to encounters with 2002, 2014, 2021, 2028, 2034 and 2041 trails some less strong activity peaks are possible during the period 12 UT 7 October - 6 UT 8 October. Theoretical radiant: RA=255.8°, Dec=-48.4°, v=10.7 km/s.

2053
07.10.2053 6:23 UT. Direct encounter with 2008 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax on the level of separate meteors with average brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=256.3°, Dec=-48.6°, v=10.6 km/s.

2055
26.09.2055 6:31 UT. Vertical encounter with 1860 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 2-3 meteors with average brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=253.0°, Dec=-40.8°, v=9.9 km/s.

2060
22.07.2060 16:31 UT. Vertical encounter with 1974 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 5-10 meteors with average brigntness. Also during the period of July 18-23 because of the 1841, 1854, 1913, 1919 and 1967 trails some weak activity peaks with ZHR up to 5 meteors with high average brightness are possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=287.7°, Dec=-21.7°, v=18.8 km/s.

2061
18.09.2061 11:13 UT. Vertical encounter with 1988 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 1-2 meteors with very low brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=272.9°, Dec=-54.3°, v=10.4 km/s.

2066
27.07.2066 8:17 UT. Vertical encounter with 2014 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 10-15 meteors with high average brigntness. Also during the period of July 25-28 because of the 2008, 2021, 2027, 2034 and 2041 trails some activity peaks with ZHR up to 5-10 meteors with high average brightness are possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=287.6°, Dec=-23.6°, v=17.3 km/s.

11.10.2066 9:41 UT. Vertical encounter with 2028 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 30-40 meteors with high average brigntness. Also during the period of October 9-14 because of the 2002, 2008, 2014, 2021, 2034, 2041 and 2047 trails some activity peaks with ZHR up to 5-20 meteors with high average brightness are possible. Theoretical radiant: RA=255.6°, Dec=-1.9°, v=11.0 km/s.

2078
12.10.2078 8:33 UT. Vertical encounter with 1933 trail. Around the given time we expect activity with ZHRmax of 1-2 meteors with high average brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=251.7°, Dec=-31.4°, v=10.7 km/s.