June Bootids 1901-2100
Introduction June Bootids are very famous and amazing shower. They gave strong outbursts in 19 century and in the beginning of the 20 one. The last activity case then was in 1927 year, and after that the shower became apparently silent for more than 70 years. It was considered, that its particles were no longer intersecting the Earth's orbit, all the more to the end of 20 century perihelion distance of the parent comet 7p shifed to 1.25 AU from the Sun. However, in 1998 June Bootids produced a strong unexpected activity burst up to 100 meteors an hour, and in 2004 another, less intensive, enhancement occured, it showed ZHRmax about 30 meteors. This second activity case was predicted by some researchers in advance. The vast majority of June Bootids outbursts is traced with the modelling very good (but there are some exceptions, first of all, the 1985 case). Particles ejected by the comet form lengthy trails. One of the reasons is radiation pressure force, which acts parallel with gravitational forces. Gravitational force is dependent on a particle mass, i.e. it is proportional to the third power of particle radius. The outcrying radiation pressuse is defined by the second power of particle radius. So far the influence of radiation pressure is the more the less is size of a particle. Its action is equivalent to the diminishing of gravitational constant G. So it increases the orbital period of particles, and the tinier a particle is, the more it is continuously retarded from larger particles after their ejection be the comet. This process therefore leads to the formation of lengthy comet trails. Meteor modelling is done through computation of orbital evolution of particles ejected by the comet with different velocities in directions tangential to the comet trajectory at the moment of perihelion. In the reality, of course, particles are ejected not only at the point of perihelion, but also within several months around it. However, comets are close to perihelion during quite a little time comparing to their overall orbital period and main perturbations happen around their aphelions, so when comets are closer to the Sun newly ejected particles are moving very close to them in a compact dust cloud. This is the reason we can take that cloud as completely ejected in the point of perihelion, it doesn't virtualy influence the results of computations. Speaking of directions in which particles are ejected we can say that, again, in the reality they are ejected far not only in tangential directions, but in all possible ones. However, ejection velocities (from 0 to 100 m/s, and the overwhelming majority of real ejections - from 0 to 20 m/s) are negligibly small comparing to the own comet velocity (from 30 to 40 km/s) near the Earth's orbit), ejected particles have only slightly changed orbits and don't "fly away in all directions". Radial part of ejection velocity defines only thickness of a trail, which usually reaches several hundreds thousands kilometers. The shape of the trail is defined by tangential part of ejection velocity. And the last. Non-gravitational forces are often not taken into consideration in meteor calculations, as is in our case. However, some of them, say, radiation pressure, can be considered indirectly. As far as this kind of force works as diminishing of gravitational constant G, this is equivalent to increase of ejection velocity which could be easily accounted in the model. So this non-gravitational force, as many others doesn't change the configuration of trails, but leads to shifting of particles with different masses along them. June Bootid trails modelling allowed to prepare very good predictions of shower activity in the previous years, real maximums differed from predicted ones mostly no more than on several minutes - not very much considering that computations are made for dozens and hundreds years of particles movement. More serious problem is prediction of outburst intensity - how strong the maximum could be. For such predictions special empirical models were elaborated (the single way in this case) but as before for their improvment new observations are very necessary. This paper presents descriptions of suggested past and future June Bootid activity during the period of 1901-2100 years. Computations were made for each year in this period, and, as the paper is presented in 2007, they are truly predictive for 2007-2100 years, while for the rest of them "postpredictions" were compiled. Also, as the models, used in computations are based after all on observations of real activity in the past, we will not compare each postpredition with real June Bootid activity in respective years. We also should mention that besides "traditional analisys", which is interpretation of direct encounters with dust trails, we'll use approachs called "non-perihelion particles" and "vertical trails". The latter is described in a separate chapter of the paper. These approached are purely hypotetical now, though they are quite logical internally. Still, results obtained from the use of those two approaches should be considered less reliable as with the use of traditional analysis. Computation characteristics We'd like to present the results of June Bootid meteor stream simulation aimed to the prediction of shower activity in the years 1901-2100. Simulation was made for the trails of latest 46 revolutions, i.e, from the 1720 trail, as well as evolution of the next 17 trails to be ejected in the future, up to 2095 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model described in [3] was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to turn the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the June Bootids. The computation considered only gravitational forces, however, the results are on the whole in good accordance with these of other researchers. We listed all meaningful resutls, obtained from three approached mentioned above. Predictions include all encounters found within interval +/-0.007 a.u. The following parts of trails were computed: the first 15 rev. trails for ejection velocities [-50;100] m/s, 16-30 rev. trails - [-30;50] m/s, 31-50 rev. trails - [-20;30] m/s. June Bootid predictions are given as short conclusions for the years for which possible activity enhancements are found. Orbit of the comet 7P in 1901-2100 The Author used initial orbital elements of 7P, starting from the perihelion of 1720 and up to 2095 one, presented by Kazuo Kinosita [2]. Orbital elements of 7P in the period 1901-2100, as well as values of minimal distances to the Earth orbit for these elements and relative solar longitudes are given in Table A2. Table А2 time of perih. q e AOP LAN i МD. SL. Time of MD passage - AU - ° ° ° AU ° - 1904.1.21.7812 0.92320 0.71492 173.5065 102.1888 17.0041 -0.08919 106.6824 29.01.1904 12:19 1909.10.9.9433 0.97296 0.70178 172.3287 100.5709 18.2936 -0.03945 101.9428 16.10.1909 18:30 1915.9.2.8010 0.97050 0.70233 172.4264 100.5162 18.3134 -0.04198 101.9713 09.09.1915 14:16 1921.6.13.2389 1.04087 0.68546 170.3079 99.1956 18.9278 0.02968 98.2968 20.06.1921 12:23 1927.6.20.9094 1.03920 0.68576 170.4083 99.1393 18.9450 0.02793 98.2983 28.06.1927 3:16 1933.5.18.6136 1.10179 0.66959 169.2706 97.5347 20.1146 0.09120 95.2657 26.05.1933 4:24 1939.6.22.6056 1.10148 0.66966 169.3662 97.4828 20.1214 0.09079 95.2419 30.06.1939 2:41 1945.7.10.4895 1.15918 0.65487 170.1301 95.1374 21.6920 0.14756 92.5327 17.07.1945 11:01 1951.9.8.5363 1.16044 0.65456 170.2193 95.0869 21.6884 0.14874 92.4917 15.09.1951 10:33 1957.12.4.6365 1.22629 0.64014 171.9582 93.6060 22.3423 0.21297 91.0515 10.12.1957 7:45 1964.3.24.5013 1.23012 0.63939 172.0462 93.5608 22.3250 0.21672 91.0054 30.03.1964 2:52 1970.7.20.9976 1.24736 0.63601 172.2622 93.4680 22.3216 0.23377 90.8694 26.07.1970 10:47 1976.11.28.7237 1.25420 0.63471 172.3788 93.4268 22.2931 0.24052 90.8232 04.12.1976 2:05 1983.4.7.4979 1.25399 0.63472 172.3369 93.4307 22.3070 0.24033 90.8159 12.04.1983 21:25 1989.8.19.8938 1.26096 0.63351 172.3386 93.4315 22.2721 0.24729 90.7660 25.08.1989 6:33 1996.1.2.4529 1.25589 0.63443 172.3138 93.4277 22.3014 0.24224 90.7914 07.01.1996 20:39 2002.5.15.7222 1.25815 0.63408 172.2929 93.4500 22.2847 0.24451 90.7880 21.05.2002 3:18 2008.9.26.6346 1.25327 0.63491 172.3296 93.4230 22.3102 0.23962 90.8106 02.10.2008 0:51 2015.1.30.5243 1.23921 0.63754 172.5068 93.4161 22.3349 0.22547 90.9591 04.02.2015 19:40 2021.5.27.1005 1.23424 0.63847 172.5961 93.3754 22.3635 0.22045 90.9862 01.06.2021 8:16 2027.8.25.9615 1.13311 0.65977 174.5631 92.5521 21.8285 0.11828 91.3840 29.08.2027 22:24 2033.9.23.5881 1.12847 0.66075 174.6795 92.4986 21.8608 0.11358 91.3931 27.09.2033 11:42 2039.8.28.5684 0.98184 0.69756 177.4853 89.2299 17.1944 -0.03395 89.5818 30.08.2039 18:04 2045.7.4.6830 0.97900 0.69822 177.5648 89.1900 17.2099 -0.03681 89.5613 06.07.2045 19:31 2051.4.16.9420 0.86875 0.72443 181.0338 86.8225 15.3671 -0.14603 76.5396 09.04.2051 14:03 2056.11.20.2811 0.86584 0.72506 181.0895 86.7945 15.3819 -0.14871 75.3455 12.11.2056 3:53 2062.6.17.1068 0.84696 0.72947 181.4075 86.7033 15.3887 -0.16498 66.6708 03.06.2062 12:26 2067.12.29.3332 0.84361 0.73014 181.4343 86.6841 15.4060 -0.16776 65.3482 14.12.2067 22:53 2073.7.7.6046 0.84261 0.73043 181.4441 86.7022 15.3997 -0.16854 64.8968 22.06.2073 22:28 2079.1.13.5740 0.83859 0.73137 181.4461 86.6954 15.4223 -0.17186 63.4022 29.12.2078 0:48 2084.7.21.4776 0.84287 0.73043 181.4386 86.7007 15.3948 -0.16832 64.9726 06.07.2084 20:35 2090.1.28.1884 0.84055 0.73100 181.4068 86.7088 15.4111 -0.17033 64.1656 13.01.2090 2:44 2095.8.11.2260 0.84653 0.72962 181.4525 86.6839 15.3714 -0.16519 66.2924 28.07.2095 9:13Orbital elements are given for the Epoch J2000. The following of them are denoted with symbols: q - perihelion distance; e - eccentricity; AOP - argument of perihelion; LAN - longitude of ascending node; i - inclination. MD - minimal distance to the Earth's orbit, SL - solar longitude of MD-point. Positive value of minimal distance means that point of such minimum lies outside the Earth orbit, and negative value means that this point is inside the Earth orbit. |