Leonids 1901-1910

1901
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
41767-0.0047917.030.369233.65615.11.1901 8:15154
517330.0015217.100.455234.12715.11.1901 19:273314
517330.0019317.79-0.069234.16615.11.1901 20:23254
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19815.11.1901 21:09302

In 1901 the first enhancement will be a small increase of activity from 1767 trail at 8:15 UT 15 November. Considering background activity, ZHR will rise up to 35-40 meteors. A small falling of average meteor brightness is likely. After that activity will go down a little, till ZHR=25-30 meteors. Then a strong outburst from 1733 trail will occur. Its peak will happen not long before backfround maximum and total intensity will be about 370-400 meteors on ZHR scale. An optimistic prediction for this outburst is ZHR=500-600 meteors. Also it should be characterised by hightened amounts of bright meteors. Traditional maximum will be absorbed by this outburst.

1902
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
31800-0.0035627.600.414233.85715.11.1902 19:11164
41767-0.0044224.260.227234.25216.11.1902 4:3574
51733-0.0061722.690.454234.43316.11.1902 8:5474
171333-0.0002311.740.002234.54016.11.1902 11:2722
2311350.0013511.62-0.012237.08418.11.1902 23:5921
2311350.0015011.620.013237.09119.11.1902 0:0921
241102-0.0001811.62-0.004237.13519.11.1902 1:1211
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19816.11.1902 3:18302

A number of small peaks from 1733, 1767 and 1800 trails before and after traditional maximum, as well as traditional maximum itself will impose on each other and give a lengthy maximum with ZHR about 40-45 meteors. Its duration (period with activity higher than half of that at maximum) will be several hours from 20 UT 15 November till 5 UT 16 November, some submaximas are likely. Also, in the period close to the peaks of mentioned trails the share of faint meteors will increase.

1903
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
21833-0.0043745.500.495233.77815.11.1903 23:2714
111533-0.000167.090.143233.97516.11.1903 4:094993
1115330.000287.54-0.029234.01516.11.1903 5:06773
1115330.000357.630.002234.02116.11.1903 5:1553
517330.0054728.98-0.150234.38216.11.1903 13:5014
517330.0058129.410.546234.41716.11.1903 14:4134
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19816.11.1903 9:28202

Several hours before traditional maximum, about 4:15-4:20 UT 16 November, 1533 trail should give a strong outbirst with ZHR~700 meteors. This outbirst will be notable for a moderate increase of average meteor brightness. Traditional maximum will be most soon absorbed by this outburst, but its influence will be expressed by a little slower lowering of activity after the peak comparing to the rise.


1904
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
161333-0.0033526.770.045231.18412.11.1904 15:4812
161333-0.0008526.560.103232.79113.11.1904 6:1552
161333-0.0000526.510.111232.98213.11.1904 10:4972
1613330.0041926.140.098233.44714.11.1904 21:4312
118660.0041996.340.736233.71215.11.1904 4:0224
1613330.0031226.25-0.128233.97915.11.1904 10:2522
71666-0.006308.59-0.142235.20916.11.1904 15:4114
71666-0.006338.600.255235.21216.11.1904 15:4514
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19815.11.1904 15:37202

On 13 November some small enhancements of Leonid activity due to 1333 trail are likely. Maximum will be with ZHR about 10 meteors, it will occur at 7-10 UT 13 November. Average meteor brightness will be quite low.
Traditional maximum will be somewhat higher than usual with ZHR about 20 meteors.

1905
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
181268-0.0024313.390.174231.64013.11.1905 8:48141
318000.0019649.160.378233.59115.11.1905 7:1934
71666-0.004859.550.043235.85917.11.1905 13:1814
61699-0.0036013.200.047236.35218.11.1905 1:0314
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19815.11.1905 21:4615-202

At 9 UT 13 November a small enhancement up to ZHR=15 meteors due to 1268 trail is possible. Meteor brightness should be a little lower than average. Traditional maximum, as in 1904, is expected to be somewhat higher than usual with ZHR about 15-20 meteors.

1906
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
1812680.0037116.120.058233.74115.11.1906 7:0221
1314660.000576.11-0.003235.03716.11.1906 23:5322
1214990.000957.61-0.003235.15617.11.1906 2:4413
201268-0.00112-16.69-0.005236.31618.11.1906 6:2010
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19816.11.1906 3:5515-202

No additional enhancements are expected in 1906. Traditional maximum should be higher than usual with ZHR=15-20 meteors.

1907
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
1314660.002387.87-0.057234.66316.11.1907 21:0932
1314660.001237.41-0.106234.66516.11.1907 21:11242
1015670.0001810.690.078234.78016.11.1907 23:562503
101567-0.0003610.18-0.027234.80517.11.1907 0:32673
101567-0.0003510.000.002234.81617.11.1907 0:4763
1214990.001499.45-0.003234.90317.11.1907 2:5213
121499-0.000588.15-0.025234.91217.11.1907 3:04273
121499-0.001027.840.104235.00517.11.1907 5:17413
121499-0.001187.73-0.035235.03717.11.1907 6:03103
121499-0.001097.48-0.002235.07417.11.1907 6:5513
121499-0.000537.480.001235.07917.11.1907 7:0313
1115330.0013112.19-0.009235.43217.11.1907 15:2733
1115330.0010211.680.013235.45317.11.1907 15:5893
1115330.0006010.86-0.001235.48617.11.1907 16:4413
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19816.11.1907 10:0420-253

In 1907 three or four Leonid peaks of different intensity are expected. The first at 10 UT 16 November will be traditional maximum, which should be notably higher than usual with ZHR up to 25 meteors. Then at 0 UT 17 November a strong peak from 1567 trail is likely, some additional activity should come from 1433 trail. Its intensity should rise to 300-350 meteors on ZHR scale. Meteor brigtness will be close to average level. This peak will partially impose on the naxt one, from 1499 trail. It will reach highest point at 5 UT 17 November and its intensity will be 70-90 on ZHR scale, while meteor brightness will be about average level or slightly higher. Finally, at 16 UT 17 November a small enhancement from 1533 trail is possible. Its intensity will be not higher than 20 meteors on ZHR scale, meteor brightness is average.

1908
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
121499-0.0039710.60-0.048235.06316.11.1908 12:4913
131466-0.001909.85-0.013235.13016.11.1908 14:2522
131466-0.000119.820.001235.14916.11.1908 14:5222
1414330.0021811.290.023235.15316.11.1908 14:5822
1414330.0021811.24-0.028235.15716.11.1908 15:0332
131466-0.001669.980.057235.15816.11.1908 15:04102
121499-0.0039311.10-0.064235.20116.11.1908 16:0723
131466-0.0009310.33-0.018235.23616.11.1908 16:5692
131466-0.0004710.360.001235.27216.11.1908 17:4822
1214990.0001511.030.001235.28016.11.1908 17:5913
2311350.0001515.540.001235.45916.11.1908 22:1511
28968-0.000638.30-0.010238.43419.11.1908 21:0020
28968-0.000708.300.011238.45419.11.1908 21:2320
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19815.11.1908 16:1420-253

Two peaks are expected in 1908. The first will be quite strong traditional maximum with ZHR up to 25 meteors at 16 UT 15 November. On the next day, 16 November, at 15-17 UT, some increase of activity is possible due to 1433, 1466 and 1499 trails. Several submaximas are likely, and peak ZHR should not surpass 15-20 meteors. Brightness of meteors from these trails will be about average level.

1909
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
21833-0.0023399.850.417233.33415.11.1909 1:4934
131466-0.0033810.82-0.023235.58217.11.1909 7:2012
141433-0.0011912.260.004235.76217.11.1909 11:3712
141433-0.0012212.26-0.006235.78517.11.1909 12:1022
141433-0.0014012.270.007235.88317.11.1909 14:2922
111533-0.0036018.04-0.009236.44718.11.1909 3:5513
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19815.11.1909 22:2320-253

In 1909 at 22 UT 15 November quite strong traditinal maximum with ZHR=20-25 meteors should occur. No additional activity enhancements are expected.

1910
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
1713330.0035022.480.099236.93618.11.1910 21:4132
111533-0.0009719.080.004237.41519.11.1910 9:0623
111533-0.0011519.19-0.012237.51719.11.1910 11:3163
171333-0.0022424.640.041239.25221.11.1910 4:4622
171333-0.0022624.64-0.037239.25421.11.1910 4:4812
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
234.19816.11.1910 4:325-100

In 1910 traditinal maximum will be quite weak, not more than 10 meteor on ZHR scale. It will take place at 4-5 UT 16 November. However, at 11 UT 19 November another one small enhancement from 1533 trail is likely. It also hardly surpass 10 meteors on ZHR scale, but average meteor brightness at this time should decrease.