Leonids 2091-2100

2091
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
not found
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80020.11.2091 4:165-100

In 2091 a weak traditional maximum is expected. At 4 UT 20 November activity will rise to 5-10 meteors on ZHR scale. No other outbursts are found.

2092
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
41965-0.00337-22.900.389235.88418.11.2092 12:37332
1814990.00021-7.490.002236.17318.11.2092 19:3020
31998-0.00065-26.280.344236.74819.11.2092 9:119901
1516000.00095-4.99-0.003237.14219.11.2092 18:3311
1516000.00040-5.010.002237.16319.11.2092 19:0321
1516000.00017-5.01-0.001237.16719.11.2092 19:0921
1516000.00052-4.49-0.001237.61020.11.2092 5:4011
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80019.11.2092 10:25152

In 2092 a moderate traditional maximum is expected. It will coincide with possible activity from 1998 trail. At 9:11 UT 19 November activity will rise to 50-60 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be much higher than average. Also, at 13 UT 18 November 1965 trail can give some number of bright meteors.

2093
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
rev.-м/с-°а.е.UTметеоров-
51932-0.00210-15.140.003236.11619.11.2093 0:1812
1715330.00335-6.81-0.057236.13919.11.2093 0:5111
1814990.00232-7.09-0.032236.36519.11.2093 6:1310
1914660.00139-5.63-0.015236.61319.11.2093 12:0710
2014330.00005-5.10-0.001236.61819.11.2093 12:1510
419650.00216-14.960.308236.68919.11.2093 13:55942
2014330.00091-5.00-0.010236.79219.11.2093 16:2320
1615670.00178-4.96-0.016236.80419.11.2093 16:3911
1914660.00168-5.45-0.017236.80519.11.2093 16:4110
161567-0.00055-5.22-0.003236.86719.11.2093 18:1011
2114000.00030-4.85-0.006236.91419.11.2093 19:1740
221366-0.00142-5.58-0.009236.92919.11.2093 19:3810
2114000.00037-4.840.001236.94919.11.2093 20:0710
2014330.00087-4.88-0.003236.97519.11.2093 20:4410
161567-0.00164-5.38-0.010236.97819.11.2093 20:4811
161567-0.00214-5.570.037237.08319.11.2093 23:1811
2114000.00012-4.74-0.001237.08719.11.2093 23:2310
31998-0.00174-20.480.214237.25720.11.2093 3:271342
1516000.00045-4.40-0.009237.73720.11.2093 14:5271
1516000.00013-4.330.024237.75120.11.2093 15:11481
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80019.11.2093 16:3420-253

In 2093 a number of outbursts is expected. The first one will be a peak from 1965 trail which will partially coincide with a strong background maximum. Activity will rise to 25-35 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be much higher than average. After that at 3:27 UT 20 November 1998 trail will give an enhancemnent to 15-20 meteors, brightness will be much higher than average. Finally, another small increase is possible at 15 UT 20 November due to 1600 trail. Activity will rise to 20-25 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be much higher than average.

2094
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
1814990.00035-7.69-0.010236.12619.11.2094 6:4270
1814990.00172-7.620.006236.20619.11.2094 8:3510
191466-0.00042-5.95-0.019236.30919.11.2094 11:02110
191466-0.00008-6.080.003236.31319.11.2094 11:0830
81833-0.00687-11.480.437236.69619.11.2094 20:1431
81833-0.00656-11.93-0.085236.72019.11.2094 20:4911
61899-0.00009-8.890.231236.88720.11.2094 0:4746433
519320.00075-10.030.012237.13020.11.2094 6:34252
519320.00075-9.91-0.060237.13320.11.2094 6:381273
519320.00072-9.240.201237.15320.11.2094 7:074383
31998-0.00468-16.71-0.334237.25520.11.2094 9:31162
41965-0.00002-10.660.145237.34720.11.2094 11:4393312
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80019.11.2094 22:4330-402

In 2094, as in the previous year, a number of outburst is expected, but they will be considerably stronger. First of all, some number of bright meteor can come from 1466 trail at 11 UT 19 November. After that a strong outburst from 1899 trail will follow, partially coinciding with a strong traditional maximum. At 0:47 Ut 20 November activity will rise to about 800-900 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be much higher than average. The next, less intensive outburst will be produced by 1932 trail at 7:07 UT 20 November. Activity will reach 100-150 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be much higher than average. Then a potentially stormy outburst from 1965 trail will follow. At 11:43 UT 20 November activity will rise to 1300-1400 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be much higher than average. It is very likely, that 2094 will be give the first stormy Leonid return after 2002.

2095
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
31998-0.00638-12.830.177237.30420.11.2095 16:5232
1216990.00108-6.250.004237.38820.11.2095 18:5112
1216990.00111-6.22-0.012237.39720.11.2095 19:0532
61899-0.00356-6.160.094237.41820.11.2095 19:3513
31965-0.00375-8.180.111237.43820.11.2095 20:0433
51932-0.00330-6.770.090237.44420.11.2095 20:1123
1216990.00002-5.260.001237.50220.11.2095 21:3442
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80020.11.2095 4:5340-502

In 2095 a quite strong traditional maximum is expected, and considering closing comet 55P, at 5 UT 20 November activity will rise to 40-50 meteors on ZHR scale. No other significant outbursts are found.

2096
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
12065-0.00646-15.080.220237.12919.11.2096 18:5213
41965-0.00651-6.170.186237.23619.11.2096 21:2413
1117330.00006-5.810.000237.35120.11.2096 0:0812
3011020.000535.460.012237.51720.11.2096 4:0420
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80019.11.2096 11:0240-502

In 2096 a quite strong traditional maximum is expected, and considering closing comet 55P, at 11 UT 20 November activity will rise to 40-50 meteors on ZHR scale. No other significant outbursts are found.

2097
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
12065-0.00656-11.470.986236.80219.11.2097 17:14152
191466-0.00064-4.780.008238.37020.11.2097 6:4620
1615670.00020-2.690.002237.96420.11.2097 20:5221
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80019.11.2097 17:1130-401

In 2097 a quite strong traditional maximum is expected, and considering closing comet 55P, at 17 UT 20 November activity will rise to 30-40 meteors on ZHR scale. No other significant outbursts are found.

2098
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
12065-0.006709.200.938236.80119.11.2098 23:2294
181499-0.00044-3.860.145237.06020.11.2098 5:31720
22031-0.006235.080.510237.09120.11.2098 6:1624
1814990.00025-3.680.030237.13820.11.2098 7:23270
1814990.00049-3.64-0.006237.16020.11.2098 7:5430
261234-0.000040.93-0.004237.35820.11.2098 12:3620
181499-0.00132-2.34-0.115237.37220.11.2098 12:5620
71866-0.002063.41-0.129237.37220.11.2098 12:5624
2612340.000100.920.012237.39620.11.2098 13:3050
71866-0.001684.15-0.033237.48020.11.2098 15:3124
101767-0.001913.090.124237.86521.11.2098 0:4023
111733-0.001493.400.092237.97221.11.2098 3:1333
2313330.002568.82-0.023238.29821.11.2098 10:5811
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80019.11.2098 23:20100-1504

In 2098 a very powerful traditional maximum is expected, and considering the perihelion of comet 55P, at 23 UT 19 November activity will rise to 100-150 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, at 6 UT 20 November 1499 trail will give an outburst to 80-100 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be much higher than average.

2099
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
131633-0.0045023.36-0.431232.59816.11.2099 1:2792
111699-0.0011727.34-0.160234.29217.11.2099 17:48153
191466-0.00032-2.810.001236.85320.11.2099 6:4511
12065-0.0064428.860.892236.86520.11.2099 7:0274
301102-0.000442.65-0.013236.88620.11.2099 7:3220
301102-0.000562.79-0.014236.88720.11.2099 7:3420
301102-0.000462.780.026236.88820.11.2099 7:3540
1216990.000054.010.000237.71421.11.2099 3:1413
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80020.11.2099 5:3040-502

In 2099 a quite strong background maximum is expected, and considering close comet 55P, at 6 UT 20 November activity will rise to about 40-50 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, 1633 and 1699 trails should give two small enhancements at 1 UT 16 November and at 18 UT 17 November, respectively. Activity will reach 15-20 meteors on ZHR scale in the first case, and about 25-30 meteors on ZHR scale in the second one. Brightness will be both times considerably lower than average level.

2100
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-°AUUTmeteors-
12065-0.0052547.590.850237.20620.11.2100 21:1814
traditional maximum
sol.long.Max. timeZHRexIntensity
°UTmeteors-
236.80020.11.2100 11:3915-200

In 2100 a very weak traditional maximum is expected. Considering closing comet 55P, at 12 UT 20 November activity can reach to 15-20 meteors on ZHR scale, but it is very possible, that activity will not surpass 10 meteors on ZHR scale. No other outbursts are found.