Leonids 1901-2100

Conclusion
We considered predictions of Leonid activity for each year in the period 1901-2100. These predictions were very short and they described only the most important features of expected activity. Nevertheless, we can underline some especialities. They are connected with sharply expressed periodicity of strong Leonid outbursts, which are occuring mostly during several years around perihelia of their parent comet 55P Tempel-Tuttle. Below are short summaries of such high activity predictions around each perihelion of the comet 55P during the period 1901-2100.
1899 Perihelion
The 1899 year itself does not fit to the described period, but this period begins in 1901 and it is only 2 years after this perihelion, when heightened activity was still going on. Its dynamics looks as follows: in 1901 a strong outburst to ZHR=400 meteors occured, 1902 was much more quiet, maximum was not higher than 45 meteors on ZHR scale. In 1903 again a very strong outburst happened, it reached ZHR=700 meteors. In 1904-1906 activity was on the normal level with maxima not higher than 15-20 meteors on ZHR scale, and 1907 became the last year of Leonid epoch around 1899 perihelion. It gave two outbursts to 350 and 90 meteors on ZHR scale.
1932 Perihelion
The first increase of Leonid activity around this perihelion happened in 1928, which gave two outbursts to 80 and 150 meteors on ZHR scale. In 1929 three small enhancement occured - to 50, 50 and 70 meteors on ZHR scale. 1930 gave two outbursts - to 60 and 100 meteors on ZHR scale. The next, 1931 year, also brought two peaks of activity - to 70 and 150 meteors on ZHR scale. A double maximum, but of lesser intensity, also occured in 1932, it reached 50 and 70 meteors on ZHR scale. In 1933 only a slightly heightened peak to 40 meteors on ZHR scale happened. In 1934-1936 activity returned to normal levels of 15-20 meteors on ZHR scale. A small increase to 25 meteors occured in 1937. In 1938 activity was also somewhat higher than usual and reached 35 meteors on ZHR scale. In 1939 Leonid activity didn't surpass 20 meteors on ZHR scale, but 1940 again gave an enhancement to about 30 meteors on ZHR scale. 1941 was another usual year, and in 1942 the last and quite strong outburst around 1932 perihelion occured. Its intensity reached 90 meteors on ZHR scale.
1965 Perihelion
The first increase of activity to 50 meteors on ZHR scale happened in 1957. In 1958 activity was normal. 1959 gave the next, small enhancement to 35 meteors on ZHR scale. After normal 1960 year, in 1961 a strong outburst to 350 meteors on ZHR occured. 1952 and 1963 gave ZHRs about 35 meteors, which is a liitle above usual level. In 1964 activity increased to 80 meteors on ZHR scale. Four outbursts straight away happened in 1965, they reached 250, 400, 70 and 40 meteors on ZHR scale. In 1966 a very heavy Leonid meteor storm occured, activity reached 70000 meteors on ZHR scale. The next 1967 year gave two small peaks to 70 and 40 meteors on ZHR scale. Other two outbursts to 90 and 40 meteors on ZHR scale occured in 1968. In 1969 activity reached 500 meteors on ZHR scale. In 1970 maximum was around 50 meteors on ZHR scale. After a normal 1970 year, 1972 gave the next somewhat heightehed maximum, which reached 40 meteors on ZHR scale. 1973 was again a normal one, but in 1974 a quite strong maximum occured, it reached 80 meteors on ZHR scale. In 1975 and 1976 activity was normal, and in 1977 it reached 60 meteors on ZHR scale. After another usual 1978 year, a somewhat enhanced peak of 35 meteors on ZHR scale happened in 1979. This year became the last one in heightened activity around 1965 perihelion.
1998 Perihelion
The first two activity enhancements up to 35 and 40 meteors on ZHR scale happened in 1991, then, after normal 1992 and 1993, in 1994 a somewhat heightened activity followed, it reached 30 meteors on ZHR scale. In 1995 activity was a little higher than normal - about 25 meteors on ZHR scale. In 1996 it increased to 45 meteors on ZHR scale. The further rising happened in 1997, when activity reached 100 meteors on ZHR scale. 1998 gave three outbursts to 200, 150 and 40 meteors on ZHR scale. 1996 brought a storm of 2500 meteors on ZHR scale and another small outburst to 50 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2000 four peaks occured - to 45, 300, 350 and 350 meteors on ZHR scale. 2001 was marked with another storm to 5200 meteors on ZHR scale, as well as with a number of outbursts to 50, 40 and 600 meteors on ZHR. 2002 was again a stormy year, in fact it gave two storms - up to 1300 and 4300 meteors on ZHR scale, and besides them - two small enhancements to 30 and 40 meteors on ZHR scale. After that in 2003 activity showed dramatical decrease, expressing in a row of quite weak peaks - to 30, 25, 50, 30, 20 and 20 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2004 one enhancement a little above the normal activity level occured, it reached 30 meteors on ZHR scale. After normal 2005 year, 2006 will give an outburst to 40 meteors on ZHR scale. 2007 will also bring an outburst - to 30 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2008 a strong outburst to 130 meteors on ZHR is expected. The high activity will also be in 2009 - it will give two outbursts to 30 and 140 meteors on ZHR scale. This year will terminate the epoch of heightened Leonid activity around 1998 perihelion of comet 55P.
2031 Perihelion
The first increase of activity is expected in 2022 - up to 300 meteors on ZHR scale. After a period of normal activity in 2023 and 2024, 2025 will be the next year with heightened activity. It will give an outburst to 90 meteors on ZHR scale. Then a normal 2026 year will follow, and in 2027 two outbursts, each of 50 meteors on ZHR scale, will occur. In 2028 activity will be again a somewhat higher than normal - about 40 meteors on ZHR scale. After that, despite comet 55P, 2030-2032 period will be characterised by normal activity. In 2033 a number of outbrsts to 35, 30 and 400 meteors on ZHR scale will follow. Many outbursts are expected in 2034, they reach 50, 500, 40, 250 and 400 meteors on ZHR scale. 2035 will give peaks of 40, 60, 30 and 350 meteors on ZHR scale. 2036 year will be a pause - only a number of weak enhancements to 30, 40, 25 and 30 meteors on ZHR scale is expected. In 2037 activity will rise again with peaks of 50, 40, 350 and 300 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2038 outbursts to 70 and 90 meteors on ZHR scale will happen. After a normal 2039 year, 2040 will bring activity reaching 35 meteors on ZHR scale. The next two years - 2041 and 2042 - will be again normal, and in 2043 an outburst of 60 meteors on ZHR scale will happen. It will be the last year of heightened Leonid activity around 2031 perihelion of comet 55P.
2065 Perihelion
The first year with heightened activity will be 2057, it will give an outburst to 30 meteors on ZHR scale. After normal 2058 and 2059, 2060 year will again produce a little enhancement to 25 meteors on ZHR scale. A number of outbursts is expected in 2061 - up to 50, 60 and 300 meteors on ZHR scale. Heightened activity to 40 meteors on ZHR scale will happen in 2062 and 2063. In 2064 it will rise to 30 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2065-2067, despite perihelion of comet 55P, only normal activity is expected. In 2068 two outbursts will happen - to 50 and 50 meteors on ZHR scale. A number of peaks is expected in 2069, they will reach 40, 100, 80, 40 and 350 meteors on ZHR scale. A slightly heightened activity of 30 meteors on ZHR scale will be in 2070. In 2071 it will rise to 25 meteor on ZHR scale. After normal 2073 and 2074 years, 2074 will give an outburst to 40 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2075 activity will rise to 30 meteors on ZHR scale, this will be the last year of heightened Leonid activity around 2065 perihelion of comet 55P.
2098 Perihelion
The first outburst will happen in 2092 - to 60 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2093 activity will increase to 35 meteors on ZHR scale. A number of outbursts with a storm among them, will occur in 2094, their intrensity will reach 900, 150 and 1400 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2095 activity will reach 50 meteors on ZHR scale, as well as in 2096. In 2097 it will rise to 40 meteors on ZHR scale. Two outbursts are expected in 2098 - to 150 and 100 meteors on ZHR scale. 2099 will give three peaks - to 50, 20 and 30 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2100, the last year of considered period, the normal level of activity is expected.

We'd like to noge again, that the text above is based exceptionally on predictions and no comparisons with real activity (for the period before 2006) were done, as they are considered unnecessary. There are lots of data on historic Leonid activity and those who want to learn them, can do it without especial problems. Also, as this paper is completed in 2006, all predictions for years before 2006 are given in the Past tense, and beginning from the year 2006 - in the Future tense.