Perseids 1901-2100: predictions of activity
For 1901-1910 no meaningful encounters with Perseid trails are found. However, in 1909 a significant increase of background activity is likely. It will be 30-50 meteors on ZHR scale higher than usual. In 1908 and 1910 background activity can also be somewhat heightened.
In 1921 a very high level of Perseid activity is expected, ZHR can reach about 200 meteors. Also a qiute strong maximum is likely in 1922. Then during the rest years of the decade maximum activity will gradually decrease, and in its second half it will be already below normal level.
Heightened Perseid activity is expected in 1933. ZHR will reach 150 meteors. In other years of the decade activity will be about normal level or (in the second hald of the decade) somewhat lower than normal level.
In this decade heightened Perseids activity up to 150-180 meteors on ZHR scale is expected in 1945 and 1950. The first time it will be caused by Jupiter influence and the second one due to Saturn. In 1941, 1942 and 1948 activity should be lower than normal level.
During this decade heightened Persied activity thanking to Jupiter should occur in 1956 and 1957. Both times it will reach 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale.
In this decate Jupiter will cause heightened activity in 1968 - up to 150 meteors on ZHR scale, also activity will likely be above normal level (reaching 120-130 meteors on ZHR scale) in 1969. In the rest years of the decade activity will be close to the normal level - 100 meteors on ZHR scale.
All the decade a quite strong background Perseids activity will persist, but it will especially strengthen in 1979 and 1980 due to mixed impact from Jupiter and Saturn. In 1979 maximum activity will be about 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale, also before traditional maximum, at 12:36 UT 12 August, a peak from 1862 trail is likely. It should reach 100-130 meteors on ZHR scale with increase of average meteor brightness. In 1980 traditional activity can surpass 200 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, at 21:30 UT 11 August 1579 trail can give a small enhancement with increase of bright meteors numbers. Another burst of bright meteors can occur at 2 UT 12 August due to 1348 trail.
In this decade a strongly heightnened activity is expected in 1981 due to continuing influence from Jupiter and Saturn. Background activity can reach 200 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, before this maximum, at 22:44 UT 11 August, 1862 trail will produce outburst up to 150-200 meteors on ZHR scale, average meteor brightness will be very high. Activity above normal level, with ZHR of 120-130 meteors, should also be present in 1982. Then activity will come down to the norm, and the next increase is likely in 1986 and in the following years of the decade. This heightened actiivity will be caused by planets influence as well as closing perihelion of the parent comet 109P.
In the end of 1992 the comet 109P passes its perihelion. Also, in 1991-1993 positions of Perseid particles will be shifted due to Jupiter influence. So far in 1991 intensity of traditional Perseid maximum will reach 200-300 meteors on ZHR scale. Besides this, at 17 UT 12 August 1610 trail will give an outburst up to 200-250 meteors on ZHR scale with increase of their average brightness. In 1992 background activity will reach 500-600 meteors on ZHR scale, in 1993 its intensity will reach 400-500 meteors on ZHR scale. Heightened activity up to 150-200 meteors on ZHR scale is likely in the period of 1994-1997 years and only after 1998 activity will return to the normal level of 100-120 meteors on ZHR scale in maximum.
In this decade Jupiter will cause heightened activity in 2004. It will reach 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, at 20:38 UT 11 August 1862 trail will produce an outburst up to 200 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be around average level. Also somewhat heightened activity is likely in 2003 and 2005. In 2006 and 2007 activity will be about normal level or slightly below it. Another increase of background activity will happen in 2009. In will be a strong one, activity can surpass level of 200 meteors on ZHR scale. Also heightened activity is expected in 2008 and 2010.
In this decade during years 2011-2015 the normal level of activity is expected, around long-term ZHRs of 100 meteors. In 2016 Jupiter will cause significant increase up to 160-180 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2017 background maximum will be also somewhat heightnened, and after 2018 activtity should fall to the levels lower than usual activity.
In this decade during years 2021-2026 a quite low background Perseid activity is expected, notably lower that normal level at 100 meteors on ZHR scale. However, in 2027 the Earth will cross a part of the stream perturbed by Jupiter, and activity will rise up to 120-130 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2028 Jupiter influence will be on the maximum level, also this year 1479 trail is expected to encounter with the Earth. This encounted was pointed out by Esko Lyytinen, who notes that it could cause a stormy outburst. We should say, that our computations lead to much more modest results, as 1479 trail is too stretched, though still remains quite regular in some parts. So far, the peak from 1479 will lie close to a strong background maximum and this will result in a very intensive Perseid maximum with ZHR up to 250-300 meteors at 5-6 UT 12 August. However it is far below stormy threshold. In 2029 activity will most likely be above normal level, reaching ZHR of 110-120 meteors and in 2030 it will return to the normal level.
During years 2031-2037 a normal or lowered background Perseid activity is expected, and in 2038-2040 Saturn and Jupiter influence will cause heightened activity during three successive years. In 2038 and 2040 it should reach 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale, and in 2039 it is quite likely to show a peak of 200 meteors on ZHR scale.
In this decade somewhat heightened activity is likely in 2041, then in 2042-2044 it should be about the norm of 100 meteors on ZHR scale and then to 2050 it will gradually decrease to levels notably lower than normal activity.
In this decade heightened Perseid activity due to Jupiter influence is expected in 2051 and 2052. It will reach 120-130 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, somewhat heightened background activity is likely in 2055. In other decade years background maximum intensity will not surpass 100 meteors on ZHR scale.
In this decade activity will be heightened in 2063-2064 due to Jupiter and in 2068 due to Saturn. In the first case background maximum intensity will rise to 130-140 meteors on ZHR scale and in the second case activity will reach 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale. In the rest years of the decade activity will be about the norm of 100 meteors on ZHR scale.
In this decade Jupiter will cause an outburst of background activity in 2075. It will reach 150 meteors on ZHR scale. Also a somewhat heightened actitiity is likely in 2074 and 2076. In the rest years activity will not surpasss 100 meteors on ZHR scale.
In this decade heightened Perseid activity due to Jupiter influence will occur in 2087, It will reach 140-150 meteors on ZHR scale. In the rest years activity should not surpass 100 meteors on ZHR scale.
In this decade years 2091-2093 will give normal activity no more than 100 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2094-2096 activity will rise up to 120-140 meteors on ZHR scale. After that in 2097-2099 Saturn and Jupiter influence will cause a strong increase of background activity up to 200 meteors on ZHR scale. Finally, in 2100 activity will be also somewhat heightened with ZHR of 120-140 meteors.