197P-ids 2015: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of 197p-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2015 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
According to the resultds of computations, in 2015 the Earth passes at 0.00084 AU from 1913 trail of the comet 197P LINEAR. The trail is very rarified, and, together with high particles ejection velocity of 31.68 m/s it virtually cancels any activity perspective. However, this case should be anyway checked, primarily by observations - if small and scattered particled would manage to create any notable activity in radiorange. Date and time of maximum is May 25, 15:12 UT, theoretical radiant coordinates are RA=223.5°, Dec=+53.2°, which place it in the extremely northern part of Bootis. Entry velocity for such meteors is 19.3 km/s, so they are on the slow part of meteor velocity scale.
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 197P LINEAR]