209P-ids 2023: prediction of activity
to the list of predictions
Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of 209P-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2023 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
On May from nearly 3 to 6 UT some very weak appearance of the 209P-ids meteor shower is possbible due to the Earth encountering two fragments of the 1873 trail. The ejection velocitys of fragments particles is high - 38.3 and 39.7 m/s, so the chances for any detectable visual activity are very low. Still interested observers could check this case. Computed radiant: RA=121.9°, Dec=+78.5°.
References
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. E. Lyytinen, T. van Flandern "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Earth, Moon, and Planets, P. 149-166.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 209P LINEAR]
5. Hewgill G. Xearth 1.1.0 (Software program), 2003.