Draconids 2019: prediction of activity

Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Draconid trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2019 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen здесь.

In 2019 the Draconids could again show activity a year after expected moderate activity in 2018. This is connected with ecounter between the Earth and 1959 trail, and this encounter is quite similar to 1999 case, when a small activity was detected due to encounter with 1966 trail a year after the shower outburst in the perihelion 1998 year. Paratemers of encountered trails in 1999 and 2019 are given below in the table:

Year	Maximum date and time, UT	Solar longitude, °	rD-rE, AU	fM(fMD)	Vej, m/s	Comments
1999	09.10.1999 12:24	195.776	-0.00139	3.725	69.5	1966 trail
2019	08.10.2019 14:44	194.759	-0.00119	2.360	62.9	1959 trail

Parameters of 1959 and 1966 trails are quite close, besides a single significant difference in favor of 1966 trail - its 1.5 higher longitudual density. Its transversal density is also higher, as 1966 trail in 1999 was 33 years old while 1959 trail in 2019 is 50 years old. Considering all these parameters, we could assume that activity level from 1959 trail in 2019 will be about half of that in 1999. According to estimations made by Japanese observers in 1999, maximum intensity of Draconid activity was about 20-30 meteors per hour, so we could expect that in 2019 the Draconids will show a small outburst with ZHR up to 15. Computed maximum time is 14:44 UT on 8 October, theoretical radiant RA=261.4°, Dec=+53.9°, meteor brightness is expected to be low.

Fig. 3. The Earth as seen from coming Draconid meteors (RA=261.4°, Dec=+53.9°) during the expected maximum time of outburst from 1953 trail at 14:44 UT 8 October.

If happens at expected time, the most favorable conditions for this outburst observing would be in the large areas of Eurasia, up to longitudes of Western Siberia. Unfortunately, the waxing gibbous Moon would be a significant trouble as it will shine in the evening time when the shower radiant is at its highest altitudes in the sky.

Ссылки

1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 8P Tuttle]
5. Hewgill G. Xearth 1.1.0 (Software program), 2003. 6. Molau S. Results of the IMO Video Meteor Network – December 2014. http://www.imonet.org/reports/201412.pdf 7. 2016 Meteor Shower Calendar, http://imo.net/files/data/calendar/cal2016.pdf