249P-ids 2016: prediction of activity

249P-ids 2016: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of 249p-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2016 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).

The 1988 trail is expected to pass at 0.00061 AU from the Earth in 2016. Computed time of maximum is 4:33 UT on 3 November. Ejection velocity is high, so activity is expected mostly in radio range. Also, the radiant is only ~10° from Sun in the sky, thus making visual observations impossible. The Fig. 2 shows the regions of the Earth where radioobservations would be possible to check any enhancements in meteor activity level.

Fig. 3. The Earth as seen from coming 249p-ids meteors (RA=217.3°, Dec=-5.8°) during the peak at 4:33 UT on 3 November.

References

1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 209P LINEAR]