45P-ids 2014: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of 45p-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 2. Detailed space-temporal projection of 45p-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2014 (February maximum) (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 3. Detailed space-temporal projection of 45p-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2014 (August maximum) (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
On 11 Februaru 11 2014 the Earth encounters to 1884 trail. Parameters of the encounter are the following: rD-rE=0.00090 AU, Vej=-24.00 m/s, fM=-0.544. Computed maximum time is 9:37 UT, around this time some very minor activity with ZHR ~1 is possible, with high average meteor brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=328.4°, Dec=-14.6°, v=22.5 km/s.
References
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 45P\Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova]
References
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 45P\Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova]