45P-ids 2022: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of 45P-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2022 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 2. Detailed space-temporal projection of 45P-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages around the time of possible activity from the 1980 trail.
On the 16 August at 23:40 UT the Earth is expected to encounnter the young trail of the comet 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova ejected in 1980. The parameters of encounter are following: minimum distance is 0.00377 AU, ejection velocity is 9.82 m/s, trail density is 373.2% of that for 1 rev. Leonid trail. While the computed minimum distance to the central axis of the 1980 trail is quite large, the rest encounter parameters (ejection velocity and trail density) are quite favorable. So far some minor activity is possible around the given maximum time and observations for checking this forecast are recommended.
Fig. 3. The Earth as seen from coming 45P-ids meteors (RA=326.8°, Dec=-15.1°) during the expected maximum time of outburst from 1980 trail at 23:40 UT 16 August.
If the expected activity occurs at the expected time it should be visible very vell on the whole African continent. Moderately favorable radiant altitude will be also on part of South America, Europe and Middle East. However the waning gibbous Moon in the phase of 0.72 will create condiderable light pollution, though there will be 2-3 hours of dark time in the evening before it rises.
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 8P Tuttle]
5. Hewgill G. Xearth 1.1.0 (Software program), 2003. 6. Molau S. Results of the IMO Video Meteor Network – December 2014. http://www.imonet.org/reports/201412.pdf 7. 2016 Meteor Shower Calendar, http://imo.net/files/data/calendar/cal2016.pdf