46P-ids 2017: prediction of activity

Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of 46p-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period in 2017(correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).

In 2017 a number of very rarified trails of the comet 46P will pass near the Earth. These are 1915, 1921, 1927, 1934 trails. These trails encounter the Earth with their parts consisting of particles with ejection velocities of 8-9 m/s. The parameter fM(fMD), showing trails density, is about 0.03-0.04, which is very low. Considering these parameters, we expect that during 30 November and the first half of 1 December some small activity enhancements of the comet 46P shower is possible from the radiant at RA=9.7°, Dec=+7.9°, with slow meteors. Unfortunately, the waxing gibbous Moon will create significant interference for checking of possible activity of this shower.

References

1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 46P Wirtanen]