June Bootids-ids 2022: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of the June Bootids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2022 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
In 2022 the June Bootids produced very weak activity, according to data obtained by the Global Meteor Network [6]. Activity persisted from June 19 to 21 with visual ZHR not higher than 0.5. The cause of this activity seems to be the resonant cloud of particles which gave several returns of the June Bootids activity in past with the period of 6 years starting in 1998 and then repeating in 2004, 2010 and 2016. The outburst were becoming less and less intensive with each next appearance as the Earth was each time passing closer and closer to the outer and rarified parts of the cloud.
The computations do not show any particular encounters with the 19 century trails from which the resonant cloud originates however in the whole they show that the Earth passed through the very edge of the cloud. The next return of the cloud is expected in 2028 but the trend of gradual worsening of encounter conditions will continue and for 2028 only a very weak activity similar to what was observed in 2022 could be expected at best.
Besides the resonant cloud particles a single encounter with a younger 1927 trail was found for 2022, but with missing distance of 0.00406 AU which is quite large. Also the ejection velocity of particles is 94.5 m/s which is very high value so this trail could produce only a very weak activity of several meteors per hour at best. Computed time of maximum is 12:51 UT on June 23 which is later than the period of activity reported in [6].
References
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. E. Lyytinen, T. van Flandern "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Earth, Moon, and Planets, P. 149-166.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 7P Pons-Winnecke]
5. Hewgill G. Xearth 1.1.0 (Software program), 2003. 6. P. Roggemans, P. Šegon, D. Vida, "June Bootids (JBO#170) in 2022 recorded by Global Meteor Network", 2022, eMeteorNews.