Draconids 2009-2010: prediction of activity
to the list of predictions
We'd like to introduce the results of Draconid meteor stream simulation aimed to the prediction of shower activity in 2009. The simulation was made for the trails of latest 28 revolutions, i.e, from the 1817 trail. The Author used the program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky "Comet's Dust 2.0" to calculate orbital elements of ejected meteor particles. To estimate expected ZHRs for different encounters the model by E. Lyytinen and T. van Flandern given in their paper  was used with some Author's alterations made in order to adopt the model for ejection velocity (Vej) instead of da0 (difference in a-semimajor axis) and to convert the model from the Leonid stream (for which it was originally created) to the Draconids. The computation considered only gravitational forces. The prediction includes all encounters found within interval +/-0.007 a.u. The following parts of trails were computed: the first 15 rev. trails for ejection velocities [-50;100] m/s, 16-28 rev. trails - [-30;50] m/s.
Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Draconids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period 08.07.2009-08.01.2011 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 2. Detailed space-temporal projection of Draconids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period 08.07.2009-08.01.2010 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 3. Detailed space-temporal projection of Draconids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period 08.07.2010-08.01.2011 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Draconids in 2009
On the Fig. 2 we can see that in 2009 two trails intersect the Earth's orbit quite close to the maximum time of the shower. They do it on solar longitudes 193.629° and 193.634°. These are 1831 and 1913 trails. Due to low density of them, especially of 1831 trail, as well as high negative ejection velocities of particles in the trails activity is very unlikely. Nevertheless, if anything appears from these trails, maximum of 1831 trail is expected on 06.10.2009 at 21:43 UT (Radiant: RA=262.3, Dec=+54.9, Vg=20.5), of 1913 trail - on 06.10.2009 at 21:50 UT (Radiant: RA=262.3, Dec=+53.6, Vg=20.1).
Draconids in 2010
As shown on the Fig. 3, there are no trails close to the Earth orbit around the Draconids maximum time. The closest one is a very thin 1831 trail, it intersects the Earth orbit appr. 10 days before the shower maximum, it is also too much for any activity to occur. So far, we don't expect Draconid activity in 2010.
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.