Leonids 2013: prediction of activity
to the list of predictions
Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Leonids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 2. Detailed space-temporal projection of Leonids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2013 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 3. Assumed profile of overall Leonid activity (blue line) and its background component (red line).
A single background maximum is expeceted for Leonids in 2013. According to the IMO data, it occurs on the solar longitude 235.27°, in 2013 it corresponds to 15:53 UT 17 November. Intensity of this peak is expected to be relatively high, with ZHR=20.
No other notable activity peaks were found. Some additional meteors to background ones could appear around 6:17 UT 20 November due to very weak action of 1567 trail. Total expected ZHR=5.
References
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 55P Tempel-Tuttle]