Leonids 2015: prediction of activity
to the list of predictions
Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Leonids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2015 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 3. Assumed profile of overall Leonid activity (blue line) and its background component (red line).
A usual background maximum is expected for Leonids in 2015. According to the IMO data, it occurs on the solar longitude 235.27°, in 2015 it corresponds to 4:11 UT 18 November. As observations show, in "usual" years its maximum ZHR is around 10-20.
No other notable activity peaks were found. 1035 and 1567 trails could cause some fluctuations in activity during November 22-24, but it is difficult to say if they could be detected by observers.
References
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 55P Tempel-Tuttle]