Leonids 2020: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Leonids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2020 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 2. Assumed profile of overall Leonid activity (blue line) and its background component (red line).
In 2020 no significant activity outbursts besides traditional Leonids maximum is expected. However as shown on the Fig. 2, some minor additional activity from trails just before and after traditional maximum (additional ZHR from trails would not exceed 1-2) should result in plateau-like maximum of activity which is expected to stay approximately at the same level during the period from 3 to 20 UT on 17 November.
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 55P Tempel-Tuttle]