Leonids 2026: prediction of activity
to the list of predictions
Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Leonids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2026 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 2. Assumed profile of overall Leonid activity (blue line) and its background component (red line).
No significant trail encounters are found for 2026, so far the Leonids activity is expected to be primarily formed by background component.
References
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. E. Lyytinen, T. van Flandern "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Earth, Moon, and Planets, P. 149-166.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p. 4. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 55P Tempel-Tuttle]