Lyrids 2011: prediction of activity
to the list of predictions
Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of p2000g1р-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period 22.01.2009-21.07.2012 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 2. Detailed space-temporal projection of p2000g1р-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period 22.01.2011-22.07.2011 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
An encounter with 1472 trail was found for 1472. Its maximum time is 22 April 15:19 UT and parameters of the encounter are Vej=-48.48 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00045 AU, ZHRex=2. So far we do not expect any significant impact from this encounter above backround activity.
References
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p.