Lyrids 2016: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of p2000g1р-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
In 2016 the Earth passes relatively close to 1 rev trail of the Lyrid stream. Minimal distance is 0.0017 AU and will be passed be the Earth at 21:44 UT on 21 April. This allows to expect a small and short enhancement of activity with ZHR=3-5 above background action. Brightness of trail meteors is expected to be low. Unfortunately, activity check will troulbled by the full Moon staying above horizon all the night time.
References
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p.