Perseids 2011: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Perseid trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
Fig. 2. Detailed space-temporal projection of Perseid trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2011 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
In 2011 the background Perseid activity is expected to be normal with ZHR about 100. Significant encounters with trails are not found.
Fig. 3. The Earth as seen from coming Perseid meteors (Radiant: (RA=48°, Dec=+58°) during the background maximum at 7:09 UT 13 August. Red line shows the border of hemisphere where the Moon is above horizon (it is shown with in the corner of the Fig. 3 according to its phase).
As shown on the Fig. 3, the best conditions for background maximum observations will be in North America. Considering that shower maximum is quite broad and lasts for several hours, observers in the very west of Europe and Africa will also be able to see activity levels close to maximum ones. Unfortunately, in 2011 Perseids maximum will be lit by the full Moon glow.
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Information from Gary W. Kronk's page http://www.maa.agleia.de
3. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
4. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p.