Perseids 2014: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Perseid trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).

Fig. 2. Detailed space-temporal projection of Perseid trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2014 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).


In 2014 the background Perseid activity is expected to be normal with ZHR about 100 or slightly below that. Maximum is expected to occur at 1:37 UT on 13 August. Significant encounters with trails are not found. The almost Moon will create significant troubles for observations.



Ссылки

1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Information from Gary W. Kronk's page http://www.maa.agleia.de
3. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
4. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p.