eta-Aquariids 2019: prediction of activity
to the list of predictions
Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Perseid trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2019 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
In 2019 the Earth encounters with fragments of two trails of the comet 1P/Halley. The first encounter is expected with -539 on the May 4 from 4 UT to 10 UT, which could give 5-10 meteors per hour above the background activity. The second enhancement of activity level, also about 5-10 meteors per hour above the background is expected from -985 trails on May 6 from 12 UT to 20 UT. The new Moon means that it will not create any problems for observations of the shower activity.
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 109P Swift-Tuttle]
4. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p.
5. Sato, M., Watanabe J. Forecast of enhanced activity of eta-Aquariids in 2013. The Meteoroids 2013, Proceedings of the Astronomical Conference held at A.M. University, Poznań, Poland, Aug. 26-30, 2013, Eds.: T.J. Jopek, F.J.M. Rietmeijer, J. Watanabe, I.P. Williams, A.M. University Press, 2014, p. 213-216