eta-Aquariids 2023: prediction of activity
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Perseid trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2023 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
In 2023 it is expected that the Earth passes close to fragments of the -390 trail of the comet 1P/Halley. Actually there should be different encounters with different parts of the trail at the different periods of time. At first the Earth should pass close to the partiles ejected with velocities within the interval of 22.8 to 23.3 m/s. This part of the -390 trail is more compact and is expected to produce shorter but probably stronger increase of the eta-Aquarids activity above the background in the period of appr. 1 to 8 UT on May 4.
The second part of the -390 trail encountering the Earth is composed of particles with ejection velocities from appr. 31.0 to 31.9 and from 33.3 to 35.2 m/s. These particles could give longer but perhaps less intensive increase of eta-Aquarids activity above the backgrond during the period of appr. 1 to 19 UT on May 6 with potential submaxima around 2 UT, 10 UT and 15 UT on May 6.
The almost full Moon could disturb observations of possible eta-Aquarind outbursts in 2023, however brigtness of its meteors is generally quite high so they can be observed even under moonlit sky, the observations of what happens so far are still quite desirable.
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. E. Lyytinen, T. van Flandern "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Earth, Moon, and Planets, P. 149-166.
3. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 1P Halley]
4. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p.
5. Sato, M., Watanabe J. Forecast of enhanced activity of eta-Aquariids in 2013. The Meteoroids 2013, Proceedings of the Astronomical Conference held at A.M. University, Poznań, Poland, Aug. 26-30, 2013, Eds.: T.J. Jopek, F.J.M. Rietmeijer, J. Watanabe, I.P. Williams, A.M. University Press, 2014, p. 213-216