eta-Aquariids 2024: prediction of activity
to the list of predictions
Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of Perseid trails parts onto their minimal distance passages in 2024 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).
In 2024 the Earth is expected to come close to fragments of -985 trail of the comet 1P, which are composed of particles with ejection velocities from 10.0 to 11.6 m/s. These particles could produce some increase in activity above the background during the period of 5 to 8 UT on May 3. The mentioned ejection velocities interval suggests comparatively large particles dimentions so meteor brightness should increase in the given period of time.
During the time of expected outbirst the Moon will be in waning crescent phase of about 30% rising in morning hours together with the shower radiant. This means it could create some problems for observations but its brightness will be significantly lower comparing that of the full Moon.
1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. E. Lyytinen, T. van Flandern "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Earth, Moon, and Planets, P. 149-166.
3. Kasuo Kinoshita, http://jcometobs.web.fc2.com/ [Orbital elements of the comet 1P Halley]
4. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p.
5. Sato, M., Watanabe J. Forecast of enhanced activity of eta-Aquariids in 2013. The Meteoroids 2013, Proceedings of the Astronomical Conference held at A.M. University, Poznań, Poland, Aug. 26-30, 2013, Eds.: T.J. Jopek, F.J.M. Rietmeijer, J. Watanabe, I.P. Williams, A.M. University Press, 2014, p. 213-216